The Primary Elections Are Wide Open

Published in El Mundo
(Spain) on 17 May 2001
by Ricard Gonzalez (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Gloria Galindo. Edited by Patricia Simoni.
Just a couple of months ago, more than a dozen politicians sounded as if they were potential Republican presidential candidates. Although no one dared to take the step to announce his or her candidacy, there were still unlikely candidates who jumped on the bandwagon, such as the ultraconservative Michele Bachmann, the libertarian Ron Paul, or the ineffable Donald Trump.

Little by little, several names have been falling off the list, after press conferences take place, in which the same old excuses surfaced: lack of interest, the hackneyed "personal matters," that “ it’s not my time,” etc.

The last ones to get off the train have been Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee. Regarding the former, there is little to say. Many warned that his flirtation as a presidential candidate was his umpteenth slapstick to get media coverage and increase his salary in the upcoming “reality show.” It is not the first time he had done it, but this time the media was happy to take the bait because it was mutually beneficial. In these banal times, the only thing that matters is the ranking of the news with the most viewers.

The latter’s decision not to run has more substance. It is intriguing that Huckabee, who surprised those inside and outside his inner circle by winning Iowa in his improbable candidacy in 2008, and having everything in his favor, throws in the towel before the fight. The media in the U.S. points out that, because he is aware of the difficulty of defeating Obama, he would prefer to keep his new status and salary as a star presenter at Fox News.

His withdrawal from candidacy orphans more than 20 percent of Republican supporters, who had exalted him to the top of the polls, tying with Mitt Romney. Above all, this may open up a bitter battle over the caucuses in Iowa and South Carolina primaries, the two states that are often key in choosing the Republican nominee, and in which he was the big favorite.

According to analysts, it is unclear who will benefit most from Huckabee’s fright. It is likely to be several candidates who will split the group that supported the former pastor, formed mainly by evangelical, middle class, and middle- to lower-class voters. Also, Huckabee, himself, who was governor of Arkansas, so far, has refused to endorse any other presidential candidates. Therefore, the Republican primaries are more open than ever, without a clear favorite.

Aside from oddities, such as Herman Cain, the "king of the pizza," among the Republican heavyweights, the only ones who have taken a step forward are Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul. In addition, there are few who have no doubt that Tim Pawlenty and Mitt Romney will imitate them sooner rather than later, because they have given ample evidence that their ambitions extend to the White House.

Obama's ambassador to China, the moderate John Huntsman and governor of Indiana, will probably also jump into the ring of the primaries. However, it is less clear what is going on in the mind of Sarah Palin, who has been overshadowed for weeks by the antics of Trump and the ambitions of Bachmann, her alter ego in the tea party. If anyone has benefited by all of the thinning of the roster of aspiring candidates, it is those less known to the public, such as Tim Pawlenty and John Huntsman. They will have a larger quota of media coverage, something that is needed to compete with the powerful electoral machinery of multi-millionaire Mitt Romney.



Unas primarias abiertas de par en par

17 MAY 2011 23:44



Hace apenas un par de meses, más de una docena de políticos sonaban como posibles presidenciables republicanos. Mientras ninguno se atrevía a dar el paso de anunciar su candidatura, aún hubo otros aspirantes improbables que se subieron al carro, como la ultraconservadora Michele Bachmann, el libertario Ron Paul, o el inefable Donald Trump.

Poco a poco, varios nombres se han ido cayendo de la lista tras las correspondientes ruedas de prensa en las que afloraron argumentos peregrinos: la falta de interés, los manidos “asuntos personales”, aquello de “no es mi momento”, etc.

Los últimos en bajarse del tren han sido Donald Trump, y Mike Huckabee. Del primero hay poco más que decir. Muchos adviertieron que su flirteo con una candidatura presidencial era su enésima bufonada para chupar cámara, y aumentar su salario en el próximo “reality show”. No era la primera vez que lo hacía, pero los medios picaron el anzuelo encantados porque el negocio es mutuo. En estos tiempos banales que corren, lo único que importa es el ránking de las noticias más vistas.

La renuncia del segundo tiene mayor enjundia. No deja de ser curioso que Huckabee, el mismo que sorprendió a propios y extraños al vencer en Iowa en su improbable candidatura del 2008, ahora con todo a su favor, tire la toalla antes de empezar el combate. Los medios estadounidenses apuntan que, consciente de la dificultad de derrotar a Obama, habría preferido mantener su nuevo estatus y sueldo de presentador estrella de la Fox News.

Su retirada deja huérfanos de candidato a más del 20% de los simpatizantes republicanos que lo habían encumbrado al primer lugar de las encuestas, empatado con Mitt Romney. Y sobre todo, puede abrir una encarnizada batalla por los “caucus” de Iowa y las primarias de Carolina del Sur, dos estados que suelen ser claves en la elección del nominado republicano, y en las que era el gran favorito.

Según los analistas, no está claro quién se beneficiará más de la espantada de Huckabee, y lo más probable es que sean varios los candidatos que se repartan el grupo que apoyaba al ex pastor, formado sobre todo por votantes evangélicos y de clase media y media-baja. Además, el propio que fuera gobernador de Arkansas, de momento, no ha querido dar su apoyo a ningún otro de los presidenciables. Así pues, las primarias republicanas están más abiertas que nunca, sin un claro favorito.

Dejando a un lado excentricidades como la de Herman Cain, el “rey de la pizza”, entre los pesos pesados republicanos, los únicos que han dado ya un paso al frente son Newt Gingrich y Ron Paul. Además, son pocos los que dudan que Tim Pawlenty y Mitt Romney les imitarán más pronto que tarde, pues han dado sobradas muestras de que sus ambiciones sí pasan por la Casa Blanca.

Probablemente, el embajador de Obama en China, el moderado John Huntsman, así como el gobernador de Indiana, se saltarán también al ruedo de las primarias. En cambio, no está tan claro qué pasa por la mente de Sarah Palin, que lleva semanas eclipsada por las payasadas de Trump, y la ambición de Bachmann, su alter ego dentro del Tea Party.

Quizás si a alguien favorece sobre todo que se adelgace la nómina de aspirantes es a aquellos menos conocidos para la opinión pública, como Tim Pawlenty o John Huntsman, pues tendrán una mayor cuota mediática para darse a conocer, algo necesario para poder competir con la todopoderosa y multimillonaria maquinaria electoral de Mitt Romney.

This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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