The Primary Elections Are Wide Open

Just a couple of months ago, more than a dozen politicians sounded as if they were potential Republican presidential candidates. Although no one dared to take the step to announce his or her candidacy, there were still unlikely candidates who jumped on the bandwagon, such as the ultraconservative Michele Bachmann, the libertarian Ron Paul, or the ineffable Donald Trump.

Little by little, several names have been falling off the list, after press conferences take place, in which the same old excuses surfaced: lack of interest, the hackneyed “personal matters,” that “ it’s not my time,” etc.

The last ones to get off the train have been Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee. Regarding the former, there is little to say. Many warned that his flirtation as a presidential candidate was his umpteenth slapstick to get media coverage and increase his salary in the upcoming “reality show.” It is not the first time he had done it, but this time the media was happy to take the bait because it was mutually beneficial. In these banal times, the only thing that matters is the ranking of the news with the most viewers.

The latter’s decision not to run has more substance. It is intriguing that Huckabee, who surprised those inside and outside his inner circle by winning Iowa in his improbable candidacy in 2008, and having everything in his favor, throws in the towel before the fight. The media in the U.S. points out that, because he is aware of the difficulty of defeating Obama, he would prefer to keep his new status and salary as a star presenter at Fox News.

His withdrawal from candidacy orphans more than 20 percent of Republican supporters, who had exalted him to the top of the polls, tying with Mitt Romney. Above all, this may open up a bitter battle over the caucuses in Iowa and South Carolina primaries, the two states that are often key in choosing the Republican nominee, and in which he was the big favorite.

According to analysts, it is unclear who will benefit most from Huckabee’s fright. It is likely to be several candidates who will split the group that supported the former pastor, formed mainly by evangelical, middle class, and middle- to lower-class voters. Also, Huckabee, himself, who was governor of Arkansas, so far, has refused to endorse any other presidential candidates. Therefore, the Republican primaries are more open than ever, without a clear favorite.

Aside from oddities, such as Herman Cain, the “king of the pizza,” among the Republican heavyweights, the only ones who have taken a step forward are Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul. In addition, there are few who have no doubt that Tim Pawlenty and Mitt Romney will imitate them sooner rather than later, because they have given ample evidence that their ambitions extend to the White House.

Obama’s ambassador to China, the moderate John Huntsman and governor of Indiana, will probably also jump into the ring of the primaries. However, it is less clear what is going on in the mind of Sarah Palin, who has been overshadowed for weeks by the antics of Trump and the ambitions of Bachmann, her alter ego in the tea party. If anyone has benefited by all of the thinning of the roster of aspiring candidates, it is those less known to the public, such as Tim Pawlenty and John Huntsman. They will have a larger quota of media coverage, something that is needed to compete with the powerful electoral machinery of multi-millionaire Mitt Romney.