Money for Their Aid

Having shown the Arab world in Libya just what the American stick is, U.S. President Barack Obama has prepared a Washington carrot, primarily for Tunisia and Libya. Obama has developed a multi-billion-dollar plan of financial help for those governments of northern Africa and the Middle East that are attempting to set out on the path of democratic change.

On the one hand, it is difficult not to tip one's hat to the U.S. president. For the last half year almost all of the experts, speaking about the unrest and revolutions around the world, repeatedly emphasized that only realistic economic reforms, new jobs and major Western investments could save the Middle Eastern region from complete collapse and widespread anarchy. In other words, Obama clearly listened to analysts' opinions and was ready to invest in Arabic democracy.

On the other hand, the majority of Americans will hardly comprehend and approve of the president's new foreign policy initiative. After all, it was not long ago that Obama himself finally called U.S. citizens to begin to live within their means and prepare for a real tightening of their belts. In the midst of a huge budget deficit, announcing multi-billion dollar investments in other countries means chopping down the presidential branch that the American leader is sitting on.

But in reality everything is more ambiguous. To begin with, Obama's ratings rose sharply after the destruction of Osama bin Laden. That is to say, now he can certainly sacrifice several percentage points of Americans' support for the sake of the not only lofty but also very long-range (from the foreign policy point of view) plan for saving the northern African democracies that have just arisen.

Besides this, say what you like, but even now a moment of truth is closing in for both Tunisia and Egypt, and also for the majority of other governments of northern Africa and the Middle East. It is evident that the people's overthrows of dictators can result in much more aggressive and anti-democratic regimes coming to power. Only pivotal changes for the better can cool the hot heads. In a very short amount of time, at that.

And, finally, if you investigate Obama's proposed plan more carefully, then it turns out that, first of all, the White House is ready not so much to give the region's countries multi-billion dollar gifts as much as to write off debts and give credit, which the revolutionaries then have to pay back with interest. Second, the U.S. is clearly counting on Europe sharing with America the financial burden of pulling the post-revolution governments out from the abyss of anarchy and chaos.

We should not forget that in the case of real improvement of the situation in Egypt and Tunisia, Obama's plan will become a stimulus for establishing democracy in neighboring governments. In any event, it is this that the Washington co-authors of the U.S. president's new Middle East initiative are openly counting on. Optimists remind us that a similar plan already helped the countries of Eastern Europe to quickly adapt to the new market reality 20 years ago.

However, there are more than a few pessimists who are sure that the mountains will not collapse in a short period of time. We should not underestimate either the Western bureaucratic red tape or the evident unreadiness of the northern African and Middle Eastern peoples to quickly change over from destruction to creation, or the influence in the region of anti-Western political powers, which, evidently, have already developed another plan for further development of the situation that is diametrically opposed to Obama's plan.

In other words, besides the dollars and euros, northern Africa and the Middle East need more pragmatic, wise politicians and diplomats. But where to find them? There is obviously a huge deficit of workers for a new system, and even Obama has not gotten a handle on it in a matter of months.