Obama Is More Popular than His Policies

I understand: The execution of Osama bin Laden is enough to convince the French that Barack Obama will be reelected. Dare I point out that the surge in the price of gasoline to more than $4 per gallon (3.8 liters) and the signs of a growth slowdown must be taken into account before reporting in May 2011 that the November 2012 reelection of President Obama has been won?

The opinion polls are volatile. But the month of May has been encouraging for the White House. Obama’s popularity rating has increased from 51 percent to 54 percent between the end of April and the end of May. Admittedly, Americans like their president. Barack Obama’s personal popularity is certain.

In finding and executing bin Laden, the president has convinced some who doubted his determination in the fight against terrorism. Many also understood that this victory was only possible thanks to the years of thankless work from the American military. The success of the raid on Abbottabad also gives George W. Bush a boost. But you can’t say that either. It’s politically incorrect.

The increasing unpopularity of Barack Obama’s economic policy is also certain. At the beginning of May, 56 percent of Americans disapproved of his economic policy. At the end of May, 58 percent were of this opinion. It is a real problem.

The discrepancy between the president’s popularity and the poor opinion stemming from his economic policy is not going to last forever. Either the morale among Americans increases or the White House economic policy once again becomes popular. Or the opposite takes place.

At the end of May, 57 percent of Americans disapproved of his health care policy. That is three points more than last July when the debate raged over the emblematic reform. Time has passed. The reform is being put into place. Americans still are not convinced.

As for the biggest topic of the moment, the gap between opinion and the president is huge: 4 percent disapprove of his budget deficit reduction policy.

60 percent of Americans think that their country’s situation is bad. We are certainly far from the 83 percent who were of this opinion in Nov. 2008 when Obama was elected. But after nearly two years of growth, Americans are clearly still feeling the impact.

That doesn’t mean that the solutions proposed by the Republicans are not necessarily popular. On the other hand, these indications are to be put within the context of the many signs of growth slowdown. The plunge in the confidence rating in May, to the lowest level since November 2010, is worrisome for Obama. The second dip in the average housing prices in the largest American cities to the lowest level since the beginning of the real estate crisis in 2006 is alarming.

Gasoline that costs more than $1 a liter is a reality that shocks millions of motorists, depresses consumers and empties their wallets.

I remain convinced that Barack Obama, like all outgoing presidents, is a front runner because his opponents are both divided and have less money for campaigning. But to conclude that it’s in the bag is a stretch. Anything can happen between now and summer 2012. The best. Or the worst. Obama can use it to his advantage. Or suffer from it.