President Obama’s Counterterrorism Gamble

Democratization of the Middle East may be a double-edged sword

In a speech on May 19, U.S. President Barack Obama announced America’s new Middle East policies, which aim to support a transition to democracy in the region.

This gives the impression of a significant change in U.S. anti-terrorism strategy, which has previously relied on the dictatorial governments of various Middle Eastern nations. Its motivation, however, also lies in the domestic economic situation of the United States.

Erasing the “negative legacy” of the Bush administration

President Obama has recently been responding to the hopes of the Arab people by demanding democratization in the Middle East. This is regarded to be closely linked to a U.S. interest in domestic security.

In the context of the War on Terror on which the Bush administration embarked after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, great importance has been placed on supporting the pro-American governments that have to endure U.S. proxy wars against terrorist organisations. The question of whether or not these governments were democratic was treated as secondary. This attitude of backing dictatorships while preaching democracy has met with increasing resistance from the people and has given rise to a vicious circle of new, anti-American terrorists.

In a speech during his visit to Egypt in June 2009, Obama declared “a new beginning between the United States and Muslims around the world,” and expressed his desire to build a future-oriented relationship with the Islamic world. In his latest speech, he said he wanted to erase the negative legacy of the Bush administration by “support[ing] transitions to democracy,” and to ensure America’s national security by improving relations with the Muslim world. This point has been described as an extension of his speech from two years ago.

The alleged killing of Osama bin Laden, supreme leader of the international terrorist organisation al-Qaida, has also worked in the President’s favor as he set out to “support transitions to democracy.” Capturing and killing bin Laden was the original purpose of the War on Terror. By achieving this aim, Obama has taken it into his own hands to create an environment in which he can tentatively suspend the War on Terror and devote himself to supporting democracy in the Middle East.

Within Congress and the U.S. armed forces, however, there exists a view that “a democratization of the Middle East will make it easier for terrorist organisations to operate”* and that the president is “taking a huge gamble,”* according to Western diplomatic sources.

*These two quotes, accurately translated, could not be verified.