Reversing the Surge in Oil Prices: A Strategy for Re-election

Published in Mainichi
(Japan) on 2 June 2011
by Nobuhiro Saito (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Sylvie Martlew. Edited by Derek Ha.
Obama called support for democracy in the Middle East and North Africa a “top priority” for the United States. The true background for this, however, is that political instability in the region has been causing a surge in oil prices, which has a significant impact on the lifestyle of American citizens.

The president’s personal top priority is undoubtedly his own re-election next autumn. Faced with the upcoming presidential elections, Obama is focusing on the recovery of the U.S. economy and the improvement of employment rates. During the State of the Union Address in 2011, three years after his inauguration, Obama continued to repeat his goal of creating “new jobs, new jobs” and pledged to “protect the American way of life."*

Restoring the U.S. economy after the “Lehman Shock” in the autumn of 2008 was not an easy task, and Obama’s political power was especially damaged by his delay in improving the employment situation. Last autumn, two years after the financial crisis, the first signs finally showed of improvement in the job market. The unemployment rate, which had temporarily exceeded 10 percent, fell to 8 percent in March. The president gradually grew confident of the U.S. economy’s recovery, stating that “we are headed in the right direction.”

At the height of all this, the democratic movement in the Middle East and North Africa was growing. The political instability, brought about by anti-government demonstrations, caused a steep rise in the price of crude oil, and as such has had an impact on Obama’s re-election campaign.

With the crude oil price climbing to $100 a barrel, the cost of petrol, which directly affects the lives of American citizens, has also risen sharply. Until half a year ago, the price per gallon was stable at $2.70; the recent increase to over $4 has been cited as a reason for Obama’s sluggish approval ratings.

In his latest speech, Obama also referred to youth unemployment rates as reasons for the anti-government demonstrations and stressed the necessity of job creation through economic growth. Political stabilization of the Middle East and North Africa region is indispensible for a stable supply of crude oil.

Economic aid for the transition to democracy seems to be included in the calculations of the Obama administration.

*These quotes, accurately translated, could not be verified.


◇脱原油高の再選戦略


 【ワシントン斉藤信宏】オバマ大統領が、中東・北アフリカ地域の民主化支援を「米国にとっての最優先課題」と位置づけた背景には、この地域の政情不安が原油価格を押し上げ、米国民の生活に多大な悪影響を及ぼしているという現実がある。

 オバマ大統領自身の最優先課題が12年秋の次期大統領選での再選にあるのは間違いない。大統領選に向けてオバマ大統領が最も重視しているのが米国経済の回復と雇用の改善で、一般教書演説の中で就任以来3年続けて「雇用、雇用」と繰り返し、「米国民の生活を守る」と訴えてきたのはそのためだ。

 ところが、08年秋のリーマン・ショック後、米国経済の回復は容易ではなく、特に雇用改善の遅れはオバマ政権にとってダメージとなっている。金融危機から2年以上も過ぎた昨年秋以降、ようやく雇用情勢に改善の兆しが見え始め、一時は10%を超えていた失業率が3月には8・8%まで低下。「我々は正しい方向に向かっている」と大統領も徐々に米国経済の回復に自信を抱き始めていた。

 そのさなかに拡大したのが中東・北アフリカの民主化運動だった。反体制デモに伴う政情不安は、原油価格の高騰という形で大統領の再選戦略に影響を及ぼした。

 原油価格が1バレル=100ドル(約8000円)台で推移する中、米国民の生活に直結するガソリン価格も急上昇。半年前まで1ガロン(約3・78リットル)=2・7ドルだったガソリンは平均4ドル超に値上がりし国民生活を直撃、オバマ大統領の支持率低迷の一因とも言われている。

 先の演説でオバマ大統領は、反体制デモの背景に若年層の失業問題があることに言及し、経済成長による雇用創出の必要性を強調した。原油の安定供給には中東・北アフリカ地域の政情安定化が欠かせない。

 民主化に向けた経済支援の裏には米オバマ政権としてのしたたかな計算もからんでいるようだ。
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