Why Hillary Is Tempted by the Bank

The staff of the U.S. State Department has strongly denied it. Reuters, however, doesn’t hold back and confirms: The rumors spread yesterday by the agency about the possible candidacy of Hillary Clinton at the World Bank are far from fanciful. In fact, taking a look at the American newspapers, there are many “anonymous” Washingtonian sources confirming the hypothesis. In mid-2012, when the current mandate of President Robert Zoellick expires, the U.S. Secretary of State would be willing to become the first woman to occupy the seat that once belonged to Robert McNamara and Paul Wolfowitz — a seat still highly coveted today, when a number of key states in the Middle East are going to restructure the foundations of their economies.

It is obvious that Clinton would deny this. As the well-informed explain, an early candidacy would only serve to weaken her and decrease her credibility in her current role, while at the same time undermining the credibility of American foreign policy.

But the timing of the appointment would be nothing short of perfect.

Clinton has repeatedly made clear that she will not stay at Foggy Bottom after the 2012 elections. But that date won’t mark the end of the political career of the former first lady: This is a possibility that can’t even be taken into account. That’s why the name Clinton has always been in the midst of all the nomination talks in the recent months. She was said to be one of the candidates for the post-Bob Gates era at the Defense Department, but President Obama chose Leon Panetta in the end. Others imagine she made a deal with the former rival Obama to return to the White House. Or, according to others, the most powerful woman in America could challenge the current president in the Democratic primary. But it would be a suicide mission, and Hillary is not the harakiri type. Although polls show the secretary of state as having a higher rating than the president, the Democratic base is firmly loyal to Obama.

No change, for now.

If not, then maybe Clinton is really looking for a prestigious place, perhaps sheltered from the daily political skirmishes in Washington and perhaps in preparation for a return to the national political scene for the 2016 elections. David Rothkopf of Foreign Policy wrote about this yesterday, adding that the Hillary/World Bank is “one of those stories that is so good it ought to be true.” Hillary Rodham Clinton and her husband Bill have always followed the development of the third world. And with another woman — Christine Lagarde, from France — headed toward the presidency of the International Monetary Fund, it would be a powerful signal of rejuvenation of those institutions (giving voice to “the most underrepresented group in the world,” in Rothkopf’s words).

If a heavyweight like Clinton decides to come forward, there would be no match. The developing countries would be once again unable to break the U.S.-Europe duopoly at the Bank and the Fund.

Moreover, the main funder of those institutions is precisely the United States. And in order to convince Congress to loosen the purse strings, a Chinese or an Indian (even if influential) may not be the best choice.

Certainly, after the leak on Reuters and the blunt denial of the U.S. government, Clinton could revise her plans. But at the present moment only a few seats have the same charm of the World Bank. In the countries where the “revolutionary” phase of the Arab spring is ending, such as Egypt and Tunisia, they are already discussing development plans that combine liberalization and the process toward democracy. In this new phase the money of the World Bank is worth more than NATO planes, and Clinton likes to always sit in the front row.