Prudence Necessary for Discussions about North Korea’s Nuclear Program

Representatives from the six states dealing with the North Korean nuclear problem have not met since talks fell apart in December of 2008. Even if talks were to begin again, would meaningful progress be possible? The U.S. government has completed two days of talks in New York City with top officials from North Korea to understand just that.

Stephen Bosworth, U.S. Special Representative to North Korea, has said that they sought “action” on North Korea’s part. The context for this statement is North Korea will get the improved relationship it wants from the U.S. when it “shows by its actions” its good faith to those six countries. The six countries want a complete stop to all nuclear development currently underway in North Korea.

North Korea’s reaction hasn’t been clear. The U.S. is planning on explaining the results of the meeting and their interactions with North Korea in a future meeting with Japan and South Korea.

So, if the six countries were to reopen talks, I would hope that prudence would rule above all else.

At a meeting two years and seven months ago, which also ended abruptly, the top negotiator for the Bush administration removed North Korea from the list of state sponsors of terrorism due to his trust in North Korea’s promises. Since the transition to the Obama administration, North Korea has launched a long-range ballistic missile under the guise of a man-made satellite and has pushed forward its second nuclear bomb test.

Last year, a multinational investigation found that a South Korean patrol boat was sunk by “an underwater explosion from a North Korean-made torpedo” and that North Korea shelled a South Korean territorial island.

North Korea invited U.S. nuclear experts to a secret facility just eleven days before the shelling of the South Korean island. There they were shown a great number of centrifuges for uranium enrichment.

By just looking at these few incidents, it becomes apparent that prudence will be indispensable. At times when the six countries looked to have a comparatively favorable outcome in hand, North Korea was able to reap all the benefits while halting progress on the denuclearizing front.

Nonetheless, a blind eye cannot be turned to North Korea’s nuclear development, especially how North Korea was to conceal a uranium enrichment facility, and that it is easier to building nuclear weapons from highly enriched uranium than it is with plutonium. Even now, the U.S. is carefully watching those nuclear weapons and the spread of that technology.

The U.S. is worried that the state of affairs on the peninsula might deteriorate to its lowest point following accidental military encounters between North and South Korea, who hold each other in contempt.

China’s cooperation will be indispensable in getting North Korea to “act.” North Korea and China’s “honey money” has figured prominently, but even China seems to be bewildered by North Korea’s actions. Since China is also the leading country in the six-party meetings, I hope to see China powerfully use its influence there.

If North Korea relaxes its stance, however, Japan will naturally want to move on the abduction incidents. However, rather than bringing light to the baffling problem of who is responsible in Japan-North Korean relationships, it could cause a disruption in Japan-U.S.-North Korean cooperation. The driving force for this problem must be prudence.