The Fall of the Washington Wall

On Oct. 3 and 4, 2011, a conference entitled “Which Transatlantic Relationship After the Global Crisis?” will be held in Houston, Texas. The gathering will provide an opportunity for certain think tanks from the civilized world to work on the effects of what has been called the global crisis — a crisis in which, according to them, we are immersed up to our necks; a crisis that is collapsing, the effects of which are structural and permanent carriers of major changes that haven’t been seen since the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989. Except that this will not happen without damages.

Those who announce all of this are “political forecasters;” they imagine how the world will evolve. Of course, one does not always take what they say literally, but when some of their expectations become reality, it lends credence to their “divinations.” Since 2009, many of the analysts, including those working for the European Laboratory of Political Anticipation, announced that the second half of 2011 would be the beginning of the end of the dollar, the global safe-haven currency and the primary means of payment in the energy field. This has been beautifully called the Fall of the Dollar or the Fall of the Washington Wall. In the eyes of the public, the downgrade of the American debt rating is certainly the most plausible and most significant sign that illustrates what experts are predicting. The fall of Washington is, in fact, a loss of confidence in the dollar. The degradation of the note of confidence in the United States will certainly reduce the confidence of investors and indicates that the upcoming days will be unkind to the Western economy.

Of course, none of this tells Algerians what will happen to us and our country in this time of great crisis, whether it’s perceived or actual. The crisis of 1987 gave rise to a serious internal disaster, the political, economic and social effects of which have been felt for over ten years. It is true that this time the situation is different, and it would be good to criticize the overly conservative management of assets in Algeria, but it nevertheless remains clear that caution pays in situations of great uncertainty. The recent financial crisis has not had direct effects on the country simply because the Algerian economy is not tethered to the global financial system. Of course, we’re not going to applaud just because we find that our own delays are protecting us. But for how long will we, like Derouiche, profit from luck instead of reading our own forecast?