A Pious Texan Excites Republicans

Perhaps Rick Perry laughed, watching at home in Austin as eight candidates for the Republican presidential nomination sought to weaken one another in a televised debate. Each contender knew that he or she would have to reckon with Perry — his candidacy had already long been the topic of speculation. Yet the governor of Texas spared himself the deadline. He made his candidacy for the position of Republican presidential candidate known only after the fact.

In just over four months, the results of the nomination will determine who will represent the Republican Party in an attempt to displace Barack Obama from the White House. And Rick Perry’s chances are good. Even before the conservative Texan announced his candidacy, polls showed him in second place among the candidates behind Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts, who had otherwise felt little competition until now. A CNN poll showed Romney at 17 percent and Perry at 15 percent, while Fox News detected a larger gap with 21 and 13 percent, respectively. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, the candidate previously endorsed by the ultra-conservative tea party movement, had also figured good odds for her candidacy. The new contender is now stealing the show from her, however.

Perry, George W. Bush’s successor, who has governed Texas for almost 11 years, has on first glance achieved a kind of employment miracle: Over 250,000 new jobs have been created in the last two years. President Obama knows how important that number is as well: Since World War II, only one U.S. president, Ronald Reagan, has achieved re-election during a period of high unemployment.

At the same time, one has to put the data from Texas into perspective. At 8.2 percent, the rate lies only one point below the U.S. average, the number of those in poverty is very high and the underlying problems have not been solved. Perry can stand before the backdrop of the U.S. debt crisis as a “tough as nails” fiscal conservative, yet the massive cuts are leaving the public education sector in his home state to bleed out. The result is this: In educational comparisons, Texas children measure up relatively poorly.

Perry is a strict Evangelical Christian and he knows how to use his religiosity. Less than a week ago, he led 30,000 followers in prayer at a football stadium in Houston. This farmer’s son and family man prayed to God for help for his country and for wisdom for the president. The seven-hour mass worship was, naturally, not an apolitical act, as Perry claimed. The support of the Christian right has already carried a governor from Texas to the post of president once. It continues to be a powerful voting group, anchored deep in America’s midst. If Perry loses, it certainly will not be because he is too religious.

Regardless of his late entry into the race, Perry has no financial problems to fear, even if he is still slightly lagging behind the competition in fundraising. His three campaigns for the position of governor have shown that the man has no difficulty scraping together the necessary money for an election campaign.

This is particularly true because Perry stands close to the ultra-conservative tea party movement: He, too, calls for a liberal economic policy, is strictly opposed to tax increases and is in favor of severe cuts in public expenditures. Even if Perry began his political career as a Democrat and later switched sides, he has found it relatively easy to cater to the core of Republican voters. At the same time, it helps him that, although Mitt Romney might currently have a better outlook, he appears too bland in the eyes of many party members.

This doesn’t yet mean any danger for Barack Obama; the campaign still has a long way to go. Should Perry, in fact, win the candidacy, he could actually score some points. More than anything, an enduring crisis would play into his hands.

It is not yet evident which topics will decide the November 2012 election. Either way, Perry will need to win over the middle. His positions on the death penalty, same-sex marriage and abortion will bring forward the question of whether, after George W. Bush, the U.S. is really ready for yet another god-fearing Texan in the White House.