Who's against Obama

The situation is starting to clear up among Republicans who want to run for president in 2012. It seems that either Mitt Romney or Rick Perry will become Barack Obama’s rival.

Last week’s series of declines on the New York Stock Exchange and poor U.S. economic results greatly increased the possibility that among this Republican bunch is the man who will be inaugurated as president in January 2013. Barack Obama’s approval rating is falling, and it is possible that he will suffer the same fate as George H.W. Bush, the only U.S. president in the last 30 years who was not re-elected for a second term.

On Thursday, Republican presidential hopefuls faced off in a TV debate. Today in Ames, Iowa, a traditional festival will take place, during which Republicans will hold an unofficial test-vote of their party’s presidential contenders. The event will not determine the winner of the primaries, but will undoubtedly determine the losers. Everyone who did poorly in Thursday’s debate and everyone who does poorly on Saturday in Ames can forget about becoming president.

Mitt Romney, multimillionaire and former governor of Massachusetts, was in the lead for months with no one posing him any threat. About a dozen candidates numbered among the original contestants, some of them less and some more frivolous. It is they who are fighting for their lives in this election.

The debate did not save Tim Pawlenty, former governor of Minnesota, who appeared sensible but quite dull and stiff when it came to public speaking. Nor did it help the U.S. ambassador to China and son of a multimillionaire, Jon Huntsman, who, according to some, is trying to fulfill his father’s unrealized dreams.

Probably the only one who gained points was Michele Bachmann, an ardent Christian and Republican tea party front-runner. However, it is hard to imagine that Americans would elect someone who has voted in favor of the country’s bankruptcy as president. (Bachmann was one of the congressmen who objected to raising the debt ceiling “for the cause,” despite the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s warnings that the country would run out of money on Aug. 3.)

Other debaters are not even worth mentioning.

If one were to assess the candidates based on the debate, the conclusion would be obvious: Romney won. Romney — who did not engage in unnecessary verbal battles with weaker rivals on Thursday. He consistently presents himself as a man who has achieved success in both business and politics, who has the practical experience that Obama — a lawyer by background — lacks, and, therefore, who would make a much better leader.

Romney decided not to participate in Saturday’s straw poll festival in Ames, probably in order to distinguish himself from “frivolous” candidates. For this reason, he may get a weaker result in Iowa, but that does not matter, as he’s not the one who desperately needs that success.

However, many analysts commented on Friday that someone else was the winner of the debate — someone who did not even participate in it. They meant Texas Governor Rick Perry, who stole the show from other presidential hopefuls. On Friday, his spokesman announced that Perry would run for president. And this was the news of the day, not the debate’s results. On Saturday, Perry will officially enter the presidential race, which will be the news of that day, not the results from the festival in Ames.

Not only does Perry have all of Michele Bachmann’s strengths but he also has something more: experience in government. He has been governor of Texas for 10 years. Of all the jobs created in the United States since mid-2009, nearly half were created in Perry’s state, which is probably his most valuable achievement. Unemployment in Texas is 8 percent, only 1 percent lower than the average national rate, but this is due to the fact that thousands of families have migrated to Texas from other states in search of employment.

The governor of Texas may be entering the race late, but before even lifting a finger, he is already in the same position as Romney, who has been fighting for months and has raised $20 million for his campaign. A recent survey shows Romney with 21 percent of Republican support, Perry with 18 percent and Bachmann with 8 percent.

Romney has three problems, however: Firstly, he introduced health care reform in Massachusetts that is similar to the one forced by Obama on the country as a whole (Republicans scare naughty children with Obama’s reform). Secondly, he is a Mormon, and many Americans consider Mormons a somewhat suspicious cult. Finally, he sometimes tries to be a comedian and tells not-so-funny jokes.

Perry is charismatic, maybe even a bit too charismatic. A week ago, he organized a great prayer for America in Houston. He was criticized for violating the principle of separation of Church and State and for favoring Christianity over other religions. He was also George W. Bush’s protégé, which is not the best recommendation.

On the Republican side there is another big unknown, namely Sarah Palin, who ran in 2008 for vice president and then gradually changed into a TV celebrity. Because of that, she has many fans, as well as opponents. She still cannot decide whether to stand for presidency or not. For the time being, she is traveling by bus while in Iowa in order to, as she explains it, try the local culinary tidbits.

However, if I were to place money on someone today, I would not hesitate. Rick Perry will be Obama’s rival.