Obama’s Lucky Streak

Obama’s lucky streak depends on the time he has left to restore the country’s economy.

If the U.S. presidential elections were held today, survey results indicate that Barack Obama’s reelection could be in jeopardy. The approval rating of his administration has fallen from 66 percent in January 2009 to 43 percent in August of this year. The good news for Obama is that there are still 15 months left until the next election and for politics this is an extensive period of time — an eternity, even.

We must consider that, since Harry Truman, no U.S. president has decreased his own salary when the country was facing economical instability. The president’s compensation remains privileged despite the anemic state of the country’s economy. Furthermore, it should be stressed that Obama’s approval rating is slightly higher than those previously in office — George W. Bush, Jimmy Carter, Richard Nixon, Harry Truman and Gerald Ford — who were able to attain reelection.

However, Obama’s chief concern remains the dissatisfaction toward his administration coming from the, more or less, 27 demographic groups identified by Gallup as key for his re-election. Moreover, dissatisfaction has been even greater (reaching almost negative 10 points) among Hispanics, Independents, and conservative Democrats. These three very important groups are crucial to determining the balance in the struggle between Democrats and Republicans in some states. Among general voters over 65 years old, the less educated and the poor have also shown signs of disappointment with Obama. Additionally, to the surprise of many, the approval of African-American voters has decreased by seven points so far this year.

The reasons for the general discontent vary, but it is undeniable that the constant unemployment rate has hurt Obama the most. This has directly affected the economy’s performance, raising questions regarding his leadership and causing uncertainty about the direction of the country.

It’s interesting that moderate voters complain about Obama’s inability to negotiate with the Republicans, while liberal radicals complain about Obama going too far in attempting to negotiate with them.

Obama defenders say that the underlying problem is a crisis that Obama inherited from his predecessor George W. Bush. That the underlying problem has been prolonged due to the interference in the legislative process by Congressional Republicans. Despite the obstacles, the president has obtained Congressional approval for his economic stimulus program, the implementation of a universal health system and the expansion of financial sector regulations that don’t risk the collapse of the banking system.

Barack Obama’s achievements are real and so are the difficulties he has faced. However, I criticize him for his unfulfilled promises, for his political inexperience in dealing with moderate Republicans, and for his lack of imagination in creating new jobs through encouraging the private sector.

Obama’s lucky streak depends on the time he still has left to make amends and to lead the economy’s recovery. It’s important to consider that all national polls show that Americans’ support of the so-called Tea Party is quickly declining (recently 20 percent approval and 40 percent disapproval), which implies that their influence over the moderate wing of the Republican Party will vanish in the near future, giving Obama the opportunity to deal with the reasonable ones, and leave behind the right-wing fundamentalists in Congress.

As Nov. 6, 2012 approaches, independent voters, Hispanics, those over 65, and the poor, who are the most disappointed, will not vote for the Republican representatives. If Obama manages to reduce the unemployment rate and revitalize the economy, it’s more likely that we may have him as president for another four years.