The War Nightmare

Many different interpretations can be offered to explain what happened in Cairo. There is a simple — albeit worrisome — one that I would like to offer: In the face of declining American hegemony in the Middle East, no form of regional stability is compatible with an ongoing conflict between Israelis and Palestinians.

When the wind of the Arab Spring blew over Egypt, many observers predicted that the fall of the authoritative and corrupted regime of Mubarak would have given carte blanche to radical Islamic forces that are hostile to the peace treaty signed with Israel in 1979. The harsh reality is that there is no need to ask the Muslim Brotherhood why the assault on the Israeli Embassy by thousands of protesters took place, since that treaty was not only unpopular among Muslim fundamentalists but among the majority of Egyptians, who still believe the “separate peace” signed by then-President Sadat symbolizes a betrayal of the Arab cause.

The possible relation between the Arab revolutions that represent a positive element of dynamism capable of putting an end to decades of political autism, which contributed to causing the terrorism of al-Qaida and bin Laden, is the unsolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict that has continually left an immeasurable burden on the future of the people living in that region. The aforementioned relationship consists of the “novelty” that lies ahead for Middle East policy — that is, the prevailing of regional stability for internal characters rather than external ones.

Hypothetically, a positive if not decisive element would be the influence of an external actor, such as the United States, without whom no state of rest (not to mention peace) is possible in this region, since the destabilizing potential of this conflict that has now been going on for over 60 years and that has assimilated more than one peace process cannot find any solution. Surely the regional actors have the necessary capacities, if anything, to reinforce disorder (e.g. Iran or Syria) or be sucked in by it (see Turkey) but not to oppose them or simply keep them at bay.

The shameful lost years of the 1990s and the following decade post-9/11 — during which there was approval of any form of violent struggle against terrorism and the simplistic but somehow almost forced logic of the war on terror — has led to even more barbaric relations between the Arabs and Israelis (e.g. resumption of the intifadas, increasing attacks on Israeli territory, the invasion of Lebanon, the invasion and economic blockade of Gaza). Yet, these years have only resulted in a deadlock state, thanks to the increasing presence and influence of Americans in the region. From now on, it should be clear to everyone that such a state is no longer acceptable.

Consequently, last Friday was the beginning of what Israeli authorities have feared since the beginning of the year but have not tried to prevent. The frustration Egyptians felt regarding the inconsistency and slowness of the process of democratic transition was accompanied by anger toward Israel and the impunity it seems to benefit from in its special relationship with the United States and the so-called double standard with which the United States judges what is happening in the Middle East. As argued by a protester interviewed by Al Jazeera, “Obama asks us to respect the safety of Israeli citizens in Egypt, but he has not uttered a word to condemn the killings of five Egyptian border guards by Israeli security forces on Aug. 18, last year.”

The almost exact same words were used by Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan when referring to Obama’s silence following the first press releases on the U.N. report that condemned the excessive use of force during the assault on the Gaza aid fleet in May 2010 (in which several Turkish citizens were killed) and led Ankara to the brink of breaking off diplomatic relations with Tel Aviv. What is more, in a few days, the U.N. General Assembly will discuss the declaration of independence made by the Palestinian National Authority.

The expected American opposition (and perhaps European) to the bid can only be perceived as yet another provocation by exasperated public opinion. In such circumstances, the risk of the region running quickly into a new conflict is all the more likely as Israel found itself more isolated after losing the only two (lukewarm) allies it had in the region — namely, Turkey and Egypt. Under these conditions, everyone, starting with the citizens of the democracy of Israel, has to admit the only alternative to a real peace is yet another unnecessary war.