China, America and Taiwan: Arms and Election Campaigns

The most recent U.S. decision to provide Taiwan with a new arms package worth $5.85 billion has drawn, as expected, objections from Beijing. Taiwan, though, will receive less than it had hoped for.

American arms supplies to Taiwan are the touchiest subject in the difficult relations between Washington, Beijing and Taipei. As anticipated, Beijing raised loud protests against the most recent U.S. decision to sell Taiwan a new arms package worth $5.85 billion. Beijing is threatening to suspend military ties and while Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi was in Washington he urged the U.S. to revoke its decision.

Amid the rumblings from Beijing, however, one could easily miss the fact that Taiwan will get less than it had hoped for. New generation F-16 fighter jets, which were explicitly requested by the Taiwanese government, won’t be delivered. The administration of Ma Ying-jeou put on a brave face and announced its satisfaction with the U.S. decision to help the island republic modernize its existing 145 F-16 jets and assist in the ongoing training of its pilots. The Taiwanese are noting that their American patron is under heavy pressure from Beijing.

China holds a large portion of U.S. national debt, and with the global economy experiencing turbulent times America is dependent on cooperating with the People’s Republic. A decision to provide Taiwan with F-16 jets, of which modernized versions are available today, would have strained the relationship between Washington and China much further.

Taiwanese political analysts assume that this is the only reason why Washington has refrained from selling 66 new F-16s to Taiwan, even though the Taiwanese government had expressed its desire to purchase them and had already prepared the necessary funding. Notwithstanding a U.S. Department of Defense report had, as recently as August 2011, come to the conclusion that the balance of power between China and Taiwan was continuing to shift towards the People’s Republic.

Washington wants to preserve the status quo

Despite publicly expressed indignation from Beijing, the American and Chinese governments have reached a tacit agreement about reduced arms supplies to Taiwan (most likely completed during Vice President Joe Biden’s trip to China), says Tang Shaocheng from the National Chengchi University in Taiwan.

Beijing knows that the U.S. is committed to the defense of Taiwan and is not inclined, out of strategic or political considerations, to give up its support to the democratic island republic of Taiwan. Washington is interested in preserving the status quo. Thus, even a reduction in arms sales to Taiwan is an achievement for China.

Beijing favors a Kuomintang-led government in Taiwan

Furthermore, Beijing knows that Taiwan is gearing up for parliamentary and presidential elections, which are scheduled for January 2011. Beijing prefers a government led by the Kuomintang, who have committed themselves to a conciliatory policy toward the People’s Republic and who back stronger economic cooperation. On the other hand, the oppositing Democratic People’s Party (DPP), which has almost matched the Kuomintang in recent polls, is pursuing formal independence for Taiwan and is not an acceptable partner for Beijing. During the presidency of Chen Shuibian a DDP-led government had already managed to raise tensions between Beijing and Taipei.

According to analysts, had Washington succumbed to pressure from China by further diminishing or possibly even suspending arms sales to Taiwan, it would have boosted the Taiwanese opposition for the upcoming elections. In such a case, the opposition would be in a position to argue that Taiwan’s vital security interests were being jeopardized under a Kuomintang-led government. Beijing wants to avoid such election support for the opposition in Taiwan.

The Taiwanese government is able to live with the American decision to modernize its current fleet of fighter jets. Nevertheless, that decision is reinforcing some already existing skepticism in Taiwan regarding the future development of ties with the U.S. Ever since this year, American forums and think tanks have been discussing a theory called the “relinquishment of Taiwan.”

Some American political analysts are of the opinion that Washington could well afford to abandon Taiwan in exchange for better relations with China. Thus far, it is merely academic discussion, says Tang Shaocheng, but until very recently, it was unthinkable to even talk about such a scenario.