Russia Cannot Walk America’s Road

On Sept. 24, at his own party congress, Medvedev officially nominated Putin to run in next year’s presidential election. After hearing the news, America’s reaction could be described as one of mixed feelings, triggering reflection among Americans. Putin’s nomination had been expected for quite some time but was still not something that the U.S. was looking forward to.

The U.S. government’s reaction has been calm, with the government repeatedly emphasizing that although Putin has been hoping to ascend to the presidency again, America’s efforts to “reset” U.S.-Russian relations will continue. This is still the case. Several years ago, Bush and Putin took office at about the same time. In June, after Bush’s first visit with Putin, Bush eloquently remarked that “I looked [Putin] in the eye” and could tell that he is “very straightforward and trustworthy.” Bush continued, “I looked the man in the eye. I was able to get a sense of his soul. He is a man deeply committed to his country…I admire Putin, I like him.” This was Bush trying to ensnare Putin with flattery, for which Putin returned the favor by saying a few words praising Bush. It was a mutual demonstration of friendship. After this, the relations between the two countries eased a bit. During the anti-terror campaign and the war in Afghanistan, Russia gave America some much-needed support and help. However, the U.S. continuously cramped Russia’s international strategic space by criticizing Russia’s backsliding on democracy. The result was that within only one year’s time, when Bush again “looked [Putin] in the eye” in Germany, he no longer liked or admired him. The relations between the two countries entered a phase of selective confrontation and selective cooperation.

Obama’s new foreign policy emphasizes a “reset” in U.S.-Russian relations. Russia has also reciprocated by cooperating a little with the U.S. on issues like nuclear weapons and Libya. But after being in office for only two years, Obama, while on a visit to Russia, openly praised Medvedev, but criticized Putin. Obama stated that he had developed a “very good relationship” with Medvedev, but criticized Putin for his “big regression in democracy.” He stated, “Putin has one foot in the old ways of doing business and one foot in the new. The old Cold War approaches to U.S.-Russian relations is outdated.” Obama continued to say that Putin needs to be “guided.” Additionally, while American Vice President Biden was visiting Russia this year, he went so far as to reveal his policy to persuade Medvedev that he should run for president in next year’s election.

It is thus clear that America’s preference and expectations are quite obvious and that, apparently, the U.S. is more concerned than the Russian citizens over the issue of “who is in and who is out” with regards to Putin and Medvedev.

It is no wonder then that even though America’s official response has been quite calm, American experts, scholars and the media are vehemently presenting their views and offering many interpretations of the events. They are saying that as a member of the party representing democratic reform, Medvedev obviously receives America’s good graces. When facing the outside world, Medvedev is milder and does not resemble Putin and his antagonistic style. The Return of the King means that for the next several years, Russia will continue to walk the road of authoritarianism, perhaps indicating that the Russian people may never again show interest in the beauty of freedom. Putin might become the next Brezhnev or Stalin, in effect becoming the new tsar.

Obviously, America’s hopes have not panned out. Russia has not and cannot walk America’s road. For Russia, it can only be like this. In an age where the process of qualitative changes is accelerating, conditional cooperation between the U.S. and Russia is still essential and is in accordance with the interests of both sides. If Putin is able to get elected in next year’s election without a hitch, the Obama administration will still want to “reset” U.S.-Russian relations, but if Obama loses the election at the end of the year and the Republican Party rises to power, there will perhaps be a whole set of new variables.

However, looking at the history of America’s international relations, the Republicans will not necessarily steer U.S.-Russian relations towards confrontation. In the last few years, the U.S. has put in quite a bit of effort in instigating trouble between China and Russia. Even the regular Russian-Japanese joint military exercises were described as a collaboration to restrain China. Not long ago, the U.S. put out a meaningful signal: In this new era of significant changes to the balance of international power, the U.S. should adjust its strategy and study the policies and strategies of Nixon and Kissinger. During those years, the two first drew in and then joined China in opposing the Soviet Union. They stood on China’s shoulders to reach Moscow. This time, they might do the exact opposite and draw in Russia and appropriately unite with them in containing China. Regarding this, we must remain highly vigilant. In America’s next general election, no matter who takes power, there is the possibility that the U.S. will use this insidious trick.