Barking Dogs

Despite all the reports out of Israel, an attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities doesn’t appear to be in the cards. The reason is partly the weather.

On Thursday, a winter storm front made its way into the Middle East. A thick cloud blanket would considerably hamper precision air bombardments, so no attack is probable before May 2012. But it’s not only the meteorologists who have calming news.

Iran’s nuclear program is hidden deep in the mountains and has been scattered all across the country. It would take a very long time to reach all the targets. The route from Israel to Iran crosses airspace controlled by Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. While Israel is militarily capable of pulling off an undetected surprise attack, a protracted air campaign would present it with almost insoluble military, logistical and diplomatic problems. Only the United States, in concert with its Western allies, would be capable of subjecting Iran to prolonged air attack. So Prime Minister Netanyahu is left with little more than threatening gestures, and he’s pulling out all the stops trying to get the world to take action. “Hold me back!” he cries in the hope of getting stronger sanctions against Iran or, better yet, getting the United States to finally attack.

Anyone frightened by the reports coming out of Israel needs to pause and reflect that they have been cleared by Israeli military censors. Should Israel eventually find itself forced out of desperation to actually attack Iran, it wouldn’t give Tehran any warning. No one needs to worry until Israel stops talking about the Iranian threat.