Electoral Balancing Act

It doesn’t look so good for Barack Obama one year before the next election. The man in the White House wants to stay in the White House but has to make do with popularity figures currently in the 40 percent range. There’s discontent even among his supporters because he hasn’t kept many of his campaign promises. And after conservative successes in the 2010 elections, it’s difficult for him to get any of his proposals through the Republican-controlled Congress. His $447 billion stimulus package is likely to bog down there as well. Bringing down unemployment figures may be one of the most important issues in the 2012 election.

If the incumbent has any hope of being re-elected at all, it’s certainly because of his opposition. Republican favorites crash and burn almost as fast as they gain altitude. The latest is Herman Cain, the most promising new candidate who is now fighting allegations of sexual harassment. Above all, however, the most difficult task the candidates face is the balancing act between the influential right-wing populist tea party movement and the Republican establishment, a matter that voters must also be watching closely. There, even such highly touted contenders as Texas Governor Rick Perry or Congresswoman Michele Bachmann seem already to have lost even before the primaries have actually begun.