Herman Cain II

Barack Obama is a lucky politician. He has the misfortune of the economy, but the roster of Republican opponents is helping a president who, logically, should lose the 2012 election. I know, I know … November of next year is a long time away. But during this pre-election period, the Republicans will destroy themselves in their civil war. It’s going to be a mess. Internecine battles within the party are normal, but the happenings this year seem unusual. Let’s start with the obvious choice, Herman Cain. This columnist was wrong. I was being friendly when I wrote in the middle of October that he would not be just the flavor of the week, but of the month. We are already in November!

Cain has coverage not just because of his unusual status as the leading Republican candidate in opinion polls, but also for the controversy this week about his inappropriate sexual conduct in the 90s, when he was the chief lobbyist of the restaurant industry. There are many allegations that have generated contradictory explanations. Cain modifies the versions of what happened with levity and a deadpan expression, repackaging himself more each time (like one of those characters in an animation who just won’t be quashed no matter what method is used). He already said that the liberal press is practically lynching him because they don’t like a black conservative and came to accuse his rival from Texas, Rick Perry, of spreading the harassment story ( this latest version has a certain logic considering the dirty nature of the electoral campaign). It is embarrassing for the Republican Party that Cain reached the top of the polls before this sexual controversy.

The man made apologies for his ignorance. Like Lulu*, who loves making soccer metaphors about everything, Cain uses metaphors about pizza, his specialty, because he was the CEO of a chain of pizzerias. A recent gaffe of his was warning that the Chinese could develop nuclear arms. Has anyone yet recommended Cain consult Google before speaking nonsense? The first Chinese bombs exploded in 1964. The majority of citizens don’t know about such things, but could it be that they really want a president who does not know much about anything other than pizza?

Some conservatives (not all, as many were embarrassed by this comment by Cain) were furious with the liberals for their condescending attitudes, their treating Cain as if he were an “Uncle Tom” (a black who is obsequious to whites). But much more venomous was Perry’s condescension in putting down the intelligence of his rival. Imagine Rick Perry commenting on this! Here’s the joke: Do you know the difference between Texans Perry and George W. Bush? The ex-president is the brain of the two.

The biggest scandal in all of this is the incredible tolerance of the Republican voters for candidates like Herman Cain and Rick Perry, and the first polls the Friday after the revelations show how Cain endures. He remains at the top, competing with Mitt Romney for the Republican leadership. My God, could it be he will be the flavor of many months?

These bubbles exist because the base of the Republican party cannot swallow Romney, a candidate with defects, but whose sin for this base is being basically more moderate and impure than the radical and ignorant shock troop. There has also been a general frustration against “the system,” “the right” and “the left.” To use an expression from Brazilian politics, there is room for “cararecos” (knickknacks) in the political game.

As for Romney, he is inconsistent and a contortionist, adjusting his positions to agree with the political winds. (His last adjustment was taking a position against the theory of global warming after previously believing in its existence.) The venomous (and very conservative) commentator George Will made a sublimely malicious comment, defining Romney as “the pretzel man”.

It’s all salty for Barack Obama, but he can give himself the luxury of experiencing a taste of victory — just a tiny taste. The statistical models are there. With his current approval rating and the stagnating economy, Obama would lose, but he lacks a match from the other team.

*Translator’s note: Lula is the nickname of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, former president of Brazil.