Gingrich: Here Today, Gone Tomorrow?

The debates between Republican candidates for next year’s presidential election are packed in tightly these days. Tonight, another one was held in South Carolina, an important state in many ways. Its primaries are held early, and it is one of the most conservative states in the country. The latter gives it considerable weight in Republican circles; it seems to be both trend-setting and representative. It is hard to tell which is the chicken and which is the egg, but the Republican that wins South Carolina almost always wins the party nomination. Therefore, there was much at stake in tonight’s debate.

The election machine still has a strong character of “Mitt Romney vs. the rest.” Most analysts consider the former Massachusetts governor the strongest candidate, but there is also widespread mistrust of him among Republicans. That’s partly due to his views on specific issues, where people feel he falls too far to the left, and partly because of his membership in the Mormon church, which is seen by many conservative Christian groups as a sect.

The problem for Romney’s detractors is that opponents that have sailed up to the front have had a tendency to self-destruct. First it was Michele Bachmann, the tea party favorite from Minnesota who gathered the anti-Romney forces under her banner. She sagged like a badly made soufflé when Texas Governor Rick Perry entered the stage. Perry himself has made several embarrassing blunders during his campaign, the latest being a few days ago when, in the middle of a debate, he forgot which three government agencies he wanted to disband.

After that, many Republicans gravitated toward Herman Cain, the Georgia businessman who admittedly lacks political experience but has done well in debates and has great credibility on economic issues. Cain, however, has lately been forced to defend himself against allegations of making sexual advances toward female coworkers. Regardless of whether the allegations are true or not, they have seriously damaged his campaign.

Now it seems Newt Gingrich, who suffered a crisis this summer after the collapse of his campaign team, is gaining new momentum. The former speaker of the House of Representatives, who, with his “Contract with America,” led the Republican takeover of Congress in 1994, has exhibited a hard-boiled and independent side during the past months that, in combination with his intellectual authority, is attracting Republicans.

Gingrich may well turn out to be Romney’s next main challenger, despite the fact that, in contrast to most other candidates, he usually refrains from criticizing the front-runner. I don’t think that Gingrich can go all the way, but he should be able to rise above his present level; in this kind of race one success usually leads to another, at least for a little while.

Newt Gingrich probably won’t be the next president of the United States, but he’s here now, even though he may be gone tomorrow.