The Rivals

Obama announced not only that the U.S. would take a leading role in the Asia-Pacific region, but also that there would be a larger and more intense American military presence there. The region would be see more of the United States in general and more U.S. military in particular. This strategic direction, including a revival and strengthening of regional alliances, is of great political importance globally.

Along with many others, it is aimed primarily at China. Many South and East Asian nations — and not only the democracies among them — have concerns over China’s rise as a strong political and super-strong economic power. In the recent past, Peking has increased that existing mistrust with brusque policies toward its immediate neighbors — thereby ensuring the desire for a permanent engagement on America’s part.

The key relationship of the 21st century

Leaders in Beijing reacted to the announcement of a stronger American military presence negatively, as if they expected it to be the key element in future American policy in the region. China doesn’t wish to be hemmed in; there should be no restrictions set in China’s sphere of influence — not by the United States nor by its allies — regardless of what form those restrictions may take.

It is clear that the U.S.-Chinese relationship will be key in the 21st century. The United States, which reached the zenith of its political, economic, military and cultural development after the end of the Cold War as the “indispensable power,” now takes on a nation that has always seen itself as dominant and whose communist regime has decided to embark on an unprecedented and successful road to modernization.

It’s almost imperative that this relationship, beyond basic governmental diversity, is characterized by rivalry and that cooperation and containment exist side by side. This is coexistence at a high level. The question, then, is whether the relationship, despite their cooperative elements and regardless of the economic and financial integration, might develop into open confrontation.

Whoever thinks it may is backed up by historical precedent. The rise of any nation has always been accompanied by great turbulence. Usual international or regional systems are regularly disrupted. Europe didn’t really recover from the military escalations that began in the early 1900s until the end of the century. The idea that another Cold War — this time in the Asia-Pacific region — is even possible is extremely disturbing, all the more so because China has a far more attractive offer than the Soviet Union was ever able to make.

America will find a way out of its fiscal woes

Whether over the short or the long term, the United States will eventually free itself from its economic problems. The regenerative and innovative powers of its economy is immense. But if not tomorrow, then surely the day after tomorrow, the world’s largest economy will be a non-western, undemocratic nation; China. Dealing with a power that thinks in terms of centuries is totally different from dealing with the Soviet Union which internally was the antithesis of modernity and would never have been able to compete economically with the western bloc. That’s not the case with China.

All this doesn’t mean that the United States should lower its guard or leave its partners in the lurch. But it would pay to keep trying to weave China into an increasingly dense network of international and transnational economic relationships. Only then, if at all, can its regional dominance be domesticated at reasonable cost and in a non-military manner.

The Asia-Pacific region will be the center of gravity for global politics and economics in this century. There are many indications that this prognosis is valid even if not all the pipe dreams come true and China experiences massive upheaval. Whatever one envisions in the fanfares of a new Asian-Pacific age, America — which always has been a Pacific power — will be a broad presence there where the fanfares are sounded. Is the trans-Atlantic era over and done? It will be up to the Europeans, their partners and their competitors to prove the contrary, although they may not relish the thought.