Moscow Will Take Advantage of US Problems in Pakistan

If Islamabad closes its doors to the Americans, they will have to rely more on moving cargo via the Russian corridor.

The United States has withdrawn its forces from the military base of Shamsi, on the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan. As a result, the southern route for cargo into Afghanistan through the Khyber Pass, currently the main supply flow for NATO forces, is now left without the protection of the U.S. military. Islamabad will most likely reconcile with Washington; otherwise, the Pakistani military will remain unfunded. But until there is a process of reconciliation, our country could intensify its usage of the northern route that runs through the territory of Russia and countries of Central Asia. Thus, Moscow will have a way to gain influence in Washington.

A significant part of NATO cargo goes through Russia to Uzbekistan — and farther via the Termez bridge over the Amu Darya in Afghanistan — explains Semyon Bagdasarov, member of the Duma Committee on International Affairs. We have a ground transit agreement with NATO under which we trust the West’s word that they only move “non-lethal” supplies.

The deputy considers this route a “unique lever of influence” on U.S. policy in Central Asia. According to him, it could be an answer to U.S. plans for deploying missile defense systems in Europe and Asia. Additionally, the northern route is used not only by the Americans but also by European NATO members.

But most importantly, Moscow is very dissatisfied with Washington’s plan to create military bases in Afghanistan — bases which would remain after 2014 and through which the Americans will be able to “loom” over neighboring countries, including Central Asian republics in the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States).

Russia could probably count on some help from Iran and Pakistan. Members of the Pakistani government have already discreetly visited Russia and China to address the creation of a coalition against American plans, said Vyacheslav Nekrasov, the executive secretary for the Federation Council tasked with working with the Afghan National Assembly.

Moreover, in intensifying its use of the route, Russia will be able to get even more money. Today, for transit, our country gets $1,200 to $1,300 per container, so in a year we receive $30 million to $40 million. This is a small amount of money, of course, but if the quantity of goods is increased, then revenues will increase. (For comparison: The Americans had to pay the Taliban $171 million to keep them from shooting at trucks transiting the Khyber Pass.)

In order to do this, Russia must begin, without delay, making the northern route more attractive by equipping it logistically. The main enemy here is the harsh climate and poor infrastructure in northern Afghanistan.

Thanks to weak logistics, the northern route is longer and more expensive compared to the southern route, explains Vyacheslav Nekrasov.

According to him, in the south it is sufficient to unload a tanker and then deliver the load of aviation fuel (the most necessary supply for NATO forces in Afghanistan) through the Khyber Pass, whereas the pass at Samand in the north — the mountain tunnel — is not so well-suited. There is no lighting, water sealing or ventilation, and the road is in poor condition. In the winter there are three to four meters of snow, and the temperature falls below -20 degrees. There is, of course, a rail line from Termez in Uzbekistan to Mazar-Sharif, but there is still insufficient logistical infrastructure, and the trains don’t run that far.

In order to make progress in developing the northern route, Russia must act very quickly, taking advantage of the discord between the United States and Pakistan.

Pakistan depends on foreign aid, and neither Russia nor China will be able to match Western levels, predicts Vyacheslav Nekrasov. Islamabad is trying to save face by getting apologies and the punishment of violators, but in the end, it will concede — unless, of course, the Americans take new, offending steps.

Pakistan is irritated by plans for a strategic partnership agreement between Washington and Kabul, but it is a question of trade, says Andrei Serenko, an expert at the Center for the Study of Contemporary Afghanistan. In order to support Pakistan’s military machine, $12 billion to $15 billion per year is required — half of which is provided by the United States.

Additionally, other projects exist — for example, a five-year agreement, signed in 2009, under which Pakistan receives annually about $1.5 billion in additional military development aid.

Under these conditions, Russia must expand its presence in Afghanistan and invest in the development of infrastructure, which, incidentally, is very welcome by the Afghans themselves. Under this condition, the northern route could actually be the lever by which Moscow strengthens its influence in the region.