The Three Elections

The United States, Venezuela and
Mexico Have the Potential to
Generate Major Changes

In this coming year, the American continent will witness the renewal of political power in three countries with high economic and geopolitical importance. During most of 2012, in the U.S., Mexico and Venezuela there will be ballots that imply crucial decisions about the social and ideological course of those societies.

The intense season of proselytizing starts today with the Republican primary elections in the state of Iowa. As usual in the struggle toward the White House, the elections to nominate a presidential candidate from each party take place in each of the 50 states until mid-June. Because the Democrats won the presidency four years ago with Barack Obama, this time, only the opposition candidates will compete to try and gain the highest number of delegates.

Although today’s ballot only decided 28 out of the 2,286 delegates, its importance lies in the fact that it is the first one to take place and allows for the strengthening, resurgence or rebirth of the different primary candidates. With a high unemployment rate and a 47 percent disapproval rating of the current president, the Republicans have the option of selecting a candidate able to generate confidence on the economic front and thus overthrow Obama next November. The person with such qualities is former governor Mitt Romney, who leads the polls despite being criticized for his moderate and accommodating positions.

While the American conservatives keep on voting on a state-by-state basis, another opposition bloc will be summoned to the polls on Feb. 12. This will be in the primary elections of the Venezuelan party, Coalition for Democratic Unity, which will choose a candidate to face Hugo Chavez next October. Surveys have shown that the one favored by anti-Chavez forces is Governor Henrique Capriles.

Even though the leader’s illness has generated sympathy for him, his health, the rising inflation, insecurity and stock shortage problems have turned Chavez, for the first time in a long while, into a defeatable politician. The winner of the opposition ballot will have to undergo the difficult task of resisting political attacks from the powerful government apparatus of the Miraflores Palace. He will also face bulky expenses and battle against social handouts used arouse popular support and generate fear of regime change amongst the poor.

Rather than thinking about a re-election, Mexicans will vote in July with the violence of organized crime on their minds. Felipe Calderon’s term has been characterized by its war against drug trafficking. There are two names on the table already, left-wing Andres Lopez Obrador and centrist Enrique Peña Nieto. In the internal elections of the ruling party, the National Action Party, Josefina Vasquez Mota stands out. The polls today showed a comeback of the formerly powerful party, the Institutional Revolutionary Party, which could carry Peña all the way to Mexico City’s government palace.

By the end of 2012, there may be more than just a change in the leaders of these three nations. A win by the Institutional Revolutionary Party would mean a change in the focus of anti-drug policy. If Obama is to be defeated in November, the U.S. could enter a period of conservative measures to try to get out of this financial and job crisis. In the case of Venezuela, an opposition victory would mean the end of the Chavez era and the beginning of a new path. What the American, Mexican and Venezuelan votes will decide this year is no small matter.