What to Grasp from the Free-for-All US Presidential Election

Published in Nihon Keizai Shinbun
(Japan) on 23 January 2012
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Richard Burck. Edited by Steven Stenzler.
Looking ahead to November’s presidential election, President Obama and the presidential candidates of the opposing Republican Party are taking heat. Even as Japan watches the debates, it wants to read warily into the undercurrent trends of U.S. public opinion.

In South Carolina, the third state to hold an election, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich was declared the winner. Senator Rick Santorum won the first round in Iowa and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney won the second state: New Hampshire.

Finally, there are many observing the fight between speaker Newt Gingrich and the financially fit Mitt Romney — an exceptional race, with attacks beginning one after another and the leading candidate frequently changing.

The greatest issue is business recovery and financial reform. Each conservative candidate is running to reduce taxes and regulations.

To be able to foresee the course of national security policy immediately from the debate is not a simple task, but one end can be noted.

Firstly, the distinguished Congressman Ron Paul, who won third place in Iowa and New Hampshire, is feeding the fire of temptation for U.S. isolationism during the prolonged recession.

Congressman Paul wants a small government and calls for the complete withdrawal of the U.S. military overseas. Despite his many extreme assertions, the congressman’s support in the U.S. probably should not be taken lightly.

Romney and other Republican candidates are drawing the line on isolationism. Trying to distinguish themselves from the moderate Obama administration, they tend to take an aggressive hard line on foreign policy and national security.

For example, if Iran refuses to abandon its nuclear development, requests for an attack will be issued. In the middle of this free-for-all race and the detailed policy debate, elaborate slander attacks are increasing.

This year there were leadership changes and elections in countries like China, Russia, France and South Korea. The world hopes for such important turning points and more calm debates.

Peace and prosperity will not exist in the Pacific Rim without strong U.S. participation and military presence. Regarding the foreign policy and national security debate, based on the viewpoints of allied countries, even Japan supposedly wants the dialogue between the Obama administration and the Republican Party to increase.


混戦の米大統領選から何を読み取るか

11月の米大統領選をにらみ、オバマ大統領と対決する野党・共和党の候補者選びが熱を帯びている。日本としても論戦に目をこらし、その底流にある米世論の動きを注意深く読み取っていきたい。

3戦目となったサウスカロライナ州での共和党の予備選は、ギングリッチ元下院議長に軍配が上がった。初戦のアイオワ州はサントラム元上院議員、次のニューハンプシャー州ではロムニー前マサチューセッツ州知事が勝った。

最終的には弁舌巧みなギングリッチ氏と、資金力にまさるロムニー氏の争いになるとの観測が多いが、緒戦で次々と勝者が入れ替わるという異例の混戦である。

最大の争点は景気の回復や財政の立て直しだ。各候補とも保守層を意識し、減税や規制の緩和策を競っている。

論戦から直ちに外交・安全保障政策の行方を占うのは容易ではないが、気がかりな米世論の一端もうかがえる。

そのひとつが、不況が長びくなか、米国内に孤立主義の誘惑がくすぶっているように見えることだ。アイオワ、ニューハンプシャー両州では、泡沫(ほうまつ)と目されていたポール下院議員が3位以内に入った。

同氏は徹底して「小さな政府」を求め、対外的には海外からの米軍の全面撤収を唱えている。こうした極端な主張が多いにもかかわらず、同氏に一定の票が集まる米国内の空気を軽視してはならないだろう。

ロムニー氏や他の共和党候補は孤立主義とは一線を画している。ただ、穏健路線のオバマ政権との違いを強調しようとするあまり、外交や安全保障政策で強硬論を競い合う傾向も見受けられる。

例えば、イランの核開発問題をめぐっては、核放棄に応じないなら攻撃を辞さないとの主張も聞かれる。混戦模様のなか、ちみつな政策論争より、中傷合戦が激しさを増しているようにも思える。

今年は中国やロシア、フランス、韓国でも指導者の交代や大統領選がある。世界がそうした重要な節目にあることも踏まえ、より冷静な論戦を期待したい。

アジア太平洋の平和と繁栄には米国の強い関与と米軍の存在が欠かせない。外交・安保政策の論戦では同盟国の視点も踏まえてもらえるよう、日本としてもこれまで以上にオバマ政権、共和党の双方との対話を増やしてほしい。
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