US Has Few Options Besides Negotiating

Iran will not abandon its nuclear program just because it is asked to do so. Neither can Obama give in to Tehran’s main demand: U.S. withdrawal from the entire region.

While the European Union is occupied with its debt disaster, another crisis threatens in the neighborhood. The disagreement over the Iranian nuclear program has all the earmarks required to develop into the most important conflict of the year, including the threat of war and another economic crisis.

President Obama insists that in preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, all options remain on the table. The White House also made clear in a direct message to the Tehran regime exactly where the red line is drawn: Should the 55 kilometer-wide Strait of Hormuz be blocked, the U.S. would consider that an act of war because it is one of the world’s most important sea routes; a majority of the oil supplying Japan and the West flows through that narrow body of water.

On the other hand, the regime in Tehran also has little interest in permanently restricting its oil exports. Iran has reacted derisively to Western threats of sanctions, but in fact the mullahs have reason for concern.

Lower oil exports means decreasing revenues — and possibly a weakening of Iran’s theocracy. Therefore, the question of whether Iran’s nuclear program is really worth that risk also remains on the table in Tehran.

The West will not get Iran to voluntarily abandon or scale back its nuclear program. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently said that Iran’s reintegration into the international community was possible. Many analysts took that as a signal that the U.S. was willing to negotiate.

But what promises might the U.S. make if Tehran opts to stick by its nuclear program? A reduction or perhaps even a total withdrawal of troops from Saudi Arabia? A guarantee that Iran’s regime has a right to exist? Iran wants a total U.S. withdrawal from the entire region — a deal Obama cannot afford to make. The poker tournament in the Persian Gulf goes on and remains a very high-stakes game.