Catholics and Republicans

In American politics, the Catholic vote is usually an accurate indicator of the winning trend. In nine of the last 10 presidential elections, the majority of Catholic voters backed the winner. Clearly, it is the centrist vote par excellence. In the last 10 elections, the majority of Catholic voters leaned toward Republicanism five times and as many times toward the Democrats. In the latest elections, in 2008, they repeated the pattern: Having voted in the majority for Obama in 2008, Catholics leaned toward the Republicans in 2010; since then the Republicans have controlled the House of Representatives.

It is not surprising that Obama has retreated from his idea to force Catholic companies and institutions to pay for contraceptives for their employees. Confronting Catholics is a mistake the Democratic campaign cannot afford in an election year, let alone in the present crisis, not to mention the fact that Obama’s strength lies, in part, in the messianic dimension of his image — this makes him attractive to an electorate in which religion is very much alive. Secularism in the United States should be administered in very small doses and only for certain social groups. In the latest Prayer Breakfast, the same one in which two years ago, the Spanish socialist president read a verse from Deuteronomy, Obama defended his fiscal policy by citing Luke. The paradox of this year is that on the Republican side, the candidate with clearest conservative moral position is also a Catholic, Rick Santorum. This used to be the role of evangelical Protestants, who have been decisive players in the elections since the Reagan era. Now it’s Santorum, a Catholic, who brings to the political arena the moral issues that have mobilized this electorate.

It remains to be seen whether Rick Santorum will be able to move from this stance. Santorum represents a form of Americanization of Catholicism that has never occurred at this scale before. But also typically North American is a focused and pragmatic Catholic vote, able to vary its position according to its criteria… and this year, it could end up supporting a Mormon. And there’s also Newt Gingrich, an ideologue of the American right wing who converted to Catholicism in 2008. Of the four first-line candidates, only one is of Protestant affiliation (Ron Paul), and he does not talk about religion. It will have to be seen if these Republicans will get cobble together a coalition among the various tendencies or if each will go his own way. The latter will give the victory to Obama, which is highly likely. In any case, it is a sign of the vitality of Catholicism in America, something foreseen by Tocqueville almost 200 years ago.