Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu doesn’t want to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. The outcome is too uncertain. But he will demand the United States put pressure on Teheran.
Just prior to Netanyahu’s trip to Washington, voices on the right in his government grow louder for a preventative strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, despite the reservations of Israeli military commanders and intelligence personnel. Still, public opinion in Israel appears to be that an attack is essential if Israel is to survive.
It’s often claimed that Israel’s prime minister is adventuresome and belligerent. That’s not the case. Netanyahu, who first came to power in 1996 and was re-elected three years ago, has proven to be very circumspect. He has never resorted to war — unlike previous leaders in his own party, the Labor or the Kadema Parties.
He is even criticized for his exaggerated caution. Critics say he lacks the courage to propose political initiatives that might endanger his coalition. They say even his security measures and threats are more verbal than actual. He doesn’t favor war in Lebanon or in the Gaza Strip. Why does anyone assume he would favor starting a very dangerous war against Iran? A war that would in any case be very harmful to Israel; a war the outcome of which would be unforeseeable. The only certainty is that an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would at best only retard development of nuclear weapons but not eliminate them completely.
All commentators agree that the talks between Netanyahu and Obama will deal mainly with Iran. What else? There’s no peace process currently underway in the Middle East. Negotiations with the Palestinians aren’t even on the horizon. And the U.S. president will not be available this year — an election year — to mediate. What do they expect from one another?
But for Obama, Iran poses a real danger. It’s not just Iran’s well-known danger to the rest of the world, a danger German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle always mentions when the European Union imposes new sanctions on Iran. It’s far more about the immediate danger to Obama the politician and candidate who wants to be re-elected this November.
Nearly all the current Republican candidates for president astound the world with their warmongering statements when it comes to Iran. America, they say, must use every means possible — including military action — to halt Iran’s nuclear program. Above all, they want to give Israel a free hand to attack Iran. Little Israel, they maintain, has a right to defend itself against Iran’s plans for annihilation. For which read: If the U.S. doesn’t intervene, it should at least encourage Israel to attack Iran — perhaps even insist that it do so immediately.
Whether the Republicans would actually pursue such a policy in the event they are elected is questionable. For now, their intent is to set a trap for Obama. If Obama prevents Israel from attacking Iran, then he’s just a damned coward who has no interest in preserving the free Western world. If he allows Israel to attack Iran, then oil prices will skyrocket when Iran retaliates, endangering America’s entire economic recovery and perhaps even causing a double-dip recession. Since everyone knows that an Obama victory depends on the recovery, either of these scenarios would improve Republican chances next November. The Americans have a saying for such a situation: Damned if you do and damned if you don’t.
With the right language, Netanyahu could help Obama avoid this dilemma. In return, he can expect more U.S. pressure on Iran and less on Israel concerning the Middle East problem, but that’s not a solution to the Iran problem. To get to that point, there will have to be regime change in Iran in favor of the majority of Iranian citizens who demonstrated in 2009 that they hate their fundamentalist government. This would also cause a power shift in Syria that would result in the ayatollahs losing their indispensable ally in Damascus, south Lebanon or Gaza.
Nuclear weapons in the hands of Iranian liberals would pose no dangers, either to Iran’s neighbors or the rest of the world. But getting to that point will take a great deal of time, and that is precisely what Obama does not have.
Of course Bibi doesn’t want to fight a war with Iran. He wants Obama to do it.