Good, But Not Great

Mitt Romney didn’t finish off his competition on Super Tuesday. The party remains divided and there’s no Romney movement in sight as of yet.

He won again, but failed to deliver the coup de grace: Mitt Romney cleaned up what there was to clean up on so-called Super Tuesday. He has won Republican primary elections in six states. The fact that he eked out a win in the socially heterogeneous state of Ohio will be important in November: No Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio.

But Romney failed to finish off his only real opponent for the nomination, Rick Santorum. The socially conservative Santorum will of course remain in the race; the other contenders, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, have also not indicated they’re ready to throw in the towel just yet. They remain a burden in an already tortuous primary election.

Even if the nominee is already a foregone conclusion and Romney is crowned this summer, there will be consequences that will prevent him from packing his bags. His home-field victories in New England won’t be significant. How he does in the Deep South will be a better indicator of his internal party popularity: There, where the party’s base is populist right wing and religiously conservative, his opponents are wagering that Romney will be unable to ignite much of a fire.

The party remains divided and this split prevents Romney from concentrating on the final battle with his main opponent, Santorum, who has neither Romney’s money nor organization but continues to cast himself as the only clearly conservative alternative. For those many swing voters who went for Obama in 2008, that’s precisely why he’s unelectable. These voters are Romney’s real goal and his best hope. He has to fight for them in order to get the nomination. Then he has to hope those who voted for McCain in 2008 don’t jump ship.

But who knows? Maybe this election year will take an unexpected turn. If the conflict with Iran escalates, other concerns will dominate the campaign and all current plans and calculations may have to be tossed out. Then again, perhaps nothing will change because the electorate has become so divided and partisan, not to mention cynical in the extreme.