Super Tuesday: Romney Wins, but It’s No “Knockout”

The nominal favorite in the race for the Republican U.S. presidential nomination, Mitt Romney, recently named President Barack Obama the “most useless” president since Jimmy Carter. At a White House press conference on Tuesday, in answer to a question about how he would have countered this attack, Obama said, “Good luck to him tonight…seriously,” and laughed.

Translated from the ironic “politeness,” in plain language it means: “Look who’s talking,” as in, first defeat your own party members, then get on your high horse.

Although he prevailed, it was not a “knockout.” The main result of “Super Tuesday,” when Republicans voted simultaneously in 10 states — including such large and important states as Ohio, Georgia and Virginia — is that the battle continues. Romney’s advantage is “mathematical;” although undeniable, he does not enjoy the ardent support of voters. None of his three rivals intend to quit the race just yet. Of course, this mainly strengthens Obama’s hand, as well as the entire Democratic Party.

By 2 a.m. on the U.S. east coast, Romney had won five states and was leading in Alaska. With varying success, the main prize went to him in a tough showdown with former Sen. Rick Santorum in Ohio. This industrial state is considered as one of the keys to the outcome of November’s general election; a win in the primary stage is symbolically important. However, Romney’s advantage has been minimal.

But he won Massachusetts, where he was once governor, and neighboring Vermont essentially without a fight. To a large extent, the same thing can be said about Idaho, where many of his fellow Mormons live.

Finally, in Virginia, on the basis of its political importance, one would expect a no less difficult battle than in Ohio. But two of the participants in the race, Santorum and the former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich, never made it on the ballot for technical reasons. This partly depreciated Romney’s victory over his only rival, elderly congressman Ron Paul. Additionally, Paul garnered 40 percent of the vote — quite a lot, considering that he, a staunch Libertarian, is cast as a “black sheep” in his own party.

Paul still hasn’t won a single state in the primaries. He certainly cannot win the entire election and has been campaigning “for an idea,” or more precisely, for the opportunity to influence the electoral platform Republicans will take to the general election. And they will have to listen, if only because his supporters, many of whom are young, are fervently loyal to him. Incidentally, up to a third of them say they won’t vote for anyone else. The party leadership is racking their brains over how to prevent them from becoming Democrats in the national election.

Santorum won in three states on Tuesday — Tennessee, Oklahoma and North Dakota. Thus, along with Gingrich, who won his “final and decisive” battle in his native Georgia, denied Romney a victory in the south, not including the special case of Virginia. This is important because the south is the traditional conservative stronghold that supports the Republican candidate in the general election and is as necessary as air.

Incidentally, the next round of Republican “primaries” takes place next week in the deep south, in Alabama and Mississippi. This is why Gingrich still hopes to rely on the support of his fellow southerners and again “rise from the ashes,” as has often happened in his career, and in the current race, too.

Of course, hopes are quite slim. And Santorum’s financial and organizational resources are constantly “at the limit.” In Ohio, due to technical issues, he wasn’t able to run for the votes of their delegates for the coming Republican Party convention. But ultimately, candidates are fighting for mandates in the primary elections. He who first gets the magic number, 1,144 votes, wins.

Before “Super Tuesday,” Romney, according to CBS, led with 187 delegates to 65 for Santorum, 30 for Gingrich and 20 for Paul. Primary mandates, almost everywhere, are distributed proportionally; a portion of the delegates goes to the loser and part to the winner. Clearly, by the end of the day, when played out over 400 electoral votes, the favorite increased his separation from his competitors.

Eventually, by all appearances, his lead will become insurmountable. But this threshold, according to local political analysts, will move right up until summer. Meanwhile, in principle, the opposition can fully concentrate on preparing for the November finale.

Above all, this applies to fundraising. While finances are spread among all four candidates, only Paul has more or less mass support. The others rely heavily on wealthy contributors. Gingrich and Santorum have elements that don’t fund campaigns directly and so-called super political action committees. Romney has slightly more, but according to local experts he may have financial problems since much of the rank and file donors have already made maximum contributions according to the law.

Additionally, as a result of internal “squabbling”, the popularity of all the Republican candidates is not growing but is decreasing. Romney has a negative rating; the gap between negative and positive opinions is 10 to 11 percent, with Santorum and Paul at 8 to 9 percent and Gingrich at more than 30 percent! Therefore, it seems the more voters learn about Obama’s potential rivals, the less they like them.

Against this background of optimism, the current president has “accidentally” arranged the first of this year’s press conferences just as “Super Tuesday” results become clearer. But it is not possible to rest on his laurels. Analysts caution that if the state of the U.S. economy, and above all, the labor market does not significantly improve come election day, even a relatively weak opponent will be able to give Obama serious competition.