Americans: Saudi and Latino?

It is clear that nowadays people in the U.S. are neither Saudi nor Latino. But to the surprise of some, and displeasure of many, the country of the North is not so far from being number one in the energy market and, with regard to the next presidential election, Latinos are going to play the decisive role.

A recent report by Goldman & Sachs says that by 2017, the U.S. will become the largest oil producer in the world, surpassing Russia and Saudi Arabia. The U.S. is on the cutting edge of the revolution of non-conventional energy, which is essentially the schist, a rock that stores organic material. By 2020, sources of schist will be equal to approximately 33 percent of the total production of natural gas and oil in the U.S., according to PCF Energy.

With Americans further establishing their dominance in the world energy market, the geopolitical and economic implications will be substantial:

– The U.S., at least for as long as the world remains dependent on fossil fuels, will continue to be the dominant world power, both in the economic and the military sense. On the contrary, if China wants to compete with the U.S. for global leadership, the country will have to modify its extreme dependence on non-renewable, dirty energy sources. Europe, given its enormous addiction to hydrocarbons, which Europeans do not produce, will most likely be at a great disadvantage against Americans.

– The gradual decrease of a large portion of imports into the U.S., both oil and carbon. Colombia has to pay close attention to this situation by looking for alternative markets.

– The loss of influence for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and the fact that the world will be less exposed to the nationalist sprouts of petro-states, such as Russia and Venezuela. The power of Vladimir Putin and Hugo Chavez is expected to decline significantly. The chances of a political crisis in the Middle East interrupting the oil supply and pushing up the gasoline price will diminish.

On the other hand, according to a recent report by the prestigious Time magazine (March 5, 2012), there are 12 million Hispanic voters who are willing to vote; it will be them who decide the next presidential election in the U.S. In spite of the fact that the overwhelming majority of Latinos share much of the Republican ideology, the unexplained policies of candidates of this party against initiatives to normalize the immigration situation have led a large proportion of Latinos to feel rejected by Republicans and, as a result, their intentions to vote will favor Democrats.

The weekly magazine argues that the Latino vote is going to be decisive in six strategic states that will make a difference: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Nevada. As for the migration of the Latino vote to Democrats, the magazine brought up the case of California, where Republicans imposed a number of laws and rules to restrict the rights of immigrants.

Because of such laws, the Republicans (with the exception of Schwarzenegger) have not won another important election in that state since. This is the price paid for politicians’ shortsightedness.

To illustrate the point that the Latino vote is going to be decisive, Time published some interesting numbers. Today, there are 50.5 million Latinos in the U.S. — one in six inhabitants; one out of every four babies is Latino; every month, 50,000 Latinos become potential voters; 30 percent of Americans will be Hispanic by 2050. Finding a sign that says, “English spoken here” is going to be difficult!