Lessons for Obama in Europe

The same weekend that Barack Obama officially began his reelection campaign with rallies in Virginia and Ohio, news from Europe began to arrive, full of worrying messages for a president faced with elections in November.

Although goings-on in other countries don’t tend to have an immediate effect on voters’ behavior voters – unless American interests are directly affected – the inauguration of Vladimir Putin in Russia and election results in France and Greece constitute a clear wake-up call regarding the world’s present concerns and the challenges that will face the next president of the United States.

The case of France is particularly illustrative. The American administration did not, in principle, have a favorite in these elections. Although Nicolas Sarkozy arrived at the Elysee with the reputation of being friendly with the US – he even came to be nicknamed “The American” – his subsequent behavior did not completely live up to these precedents. His presidency was not characterized by a simple toeing of the American line and Sarkozy never developed a personal friendship with Obama, who he even mocked in a private conversation that came to light shortly after the latter arrived in the White House. Francois Hollande seems closer ideologically to Obama, but it’s not very realistic to expect a left-wing French leader to support the foreign policy priorities of an American president. The U.S. definitely did not have a horse in this race.

Despite this, the implications of the result could be considerable. The defeat of Sarkozy, at least the sixth European leader to fall because of the economic crisis, shows the enormous difficulties that exist today in the conservation of power. Just like Obama, Sarkozy was not threatened by a particularly charismatic leader capable of moving the people’s will with his mere presence – it was his own performance that was punished by the electorate. Obama is not as unpopular as the French president. In fact, he is still looked on kindly by more than 60 percent of the population. But, as in France, the sense of economic crisis and, above all, pessimism about the path the country is taking are firmly established among voters. All polls demonstrate disapproval of Obama’s economic management and give more credit to his rival, Mitt Romney, in this area.

Economic uncertainty is consolidated in the second worrying message of the week: Greece. The elections have served to remind everyone, including those on Wall Street, whose principal index has dropped 300 points in two days, that the Greek problem and its consequences for Europe and the stability of the world economy are still valid. Obama realized long ago that without a solution to the European economic problems, the necessary revitalization of the American economy will be much more difficult to achieve. In recent months growth has slowed and the creation of jobs has been curbed. Greece also testifies to the twilight of the traditional parties, a phenomenon that is being reproduced to a lesser degree in the U.S., where prestigious analysts favor the emergence of a third political force.

That all of this should coincide with the return of Putin presents a threatening scene. The only thing missing for a perfect storm would be for the Bo Xilai scandal to erupt into a leadership struggle in China. The return of Putin shouldn’t necessarily have an effect on U.S, politics because he never really left, among other reasons. But his presence in the top job undoubtedly means something. His first speech was a challenge to U.S. predominance, giving a new electoral dimension to Romney’s claim that Russia is the “biggest rival” of the U.S.