Hillary for Vice President?
Published in Le Figaro
(France) on 23 May 2012
by Jean-Sébastien Stehli (link to original)
(France) on 23 May 2012
by Jean-Sébastien Stehli (link to original)
Translated from
by Laura Napoli.
Edited by Gillian Palmer.
We know the pollsters are wrong sometimes, but the latest New York Times/CBS poll set off a panic in the White House. It’s a little hard to believe that the pollster didn’t mess up the numbers. According to the survey, Barack Obama is preferred by 44 percent of female voters and Mitt Romney is preferred by 46 percent, while only 29 percent of voters overall have a positive view of the Republican. Knowing that women tend to vote for the left more than men, these numbers are surprising. But when all the polls are showing the two candidates as tied, the rumors of a change of vice president have been gaining force. If there’s an element of the electorate that Barack Obama can’t afford to lose, it’s the female vote.
Who is the most popular woman in the U.S.? Hillary Clinton. If Obama decides to run on a ticket with Hillary, Romney could fight all he wants and even encourage billionaires to finance the best ads money can buy, but it would all be for naught. Obama would have his second term in his pocket, according to Michael Tomasky, a Newsweek columnist.
Women have ensured the election of a Democrat to the White House since the ‘90s: Bill Clinton beat George Bush Sr. by 8 percentage points with female voters. Four years later, for Clinton vs. Bob Dole, the gap was 16 points. Al Gore carried the female vote in the 2000 election by 11 points; for Obama in 2008, the gap was 13 points (56 percent vs. 43 percent of women voted for the 44th). On average, the Democratic candidate wins by 10 points among American women. That’s a huge number, knowing that women represent the majority of voters. For example, if 67 million American women went to the polls, a difference of 10 points would represent 6.7 million votes, enough to assure that Barack Obama would remain in the White House. A recent poll in North Carolina gives the 44th precisely that 10-point advantage among women.
With Hillary on the ticket, the difference between Democrat and Republican would be, without a doubt, at least 20 points. Even more, the signal from the voters would be that Obama is preparing for 2016.
And Biden? The VP could take the place of Hillary at the Department of State, a position that he’s always wanted. But let’s not get too excited. Obama is probably not ready for this change. But in five or six months, when the gap between him and Romney narrows? Never say never….
Who is the most popular woman in the U.S.? Hillary Clinton. If Obama decides to run on a ticket with Hillary, Romney could fight all he wants and even encourage billionaires to finance the best ads money can buy, but it would all be for naught. Obama would have his second term in his pocket, according to Michael Tomasky, a Newsweek columnist.
Women have ensured the election of a Democrat to the White House since the ‘90s: Bill Clinton beat George Bush Sr. by 8 percentage points with female voters. Four years later, for Clinton vs. Bob Dole, the gap was 16 points. Al Gore carried the female vote in the 2000 election by 11 points; for Obama in 2008, the gap was 13 points (56 percent vs. 43 percent of women voted for the 44th). On average, the Democratic candidate wins by 10 points among American women. That’s a huge number, knowing that women represent the majority of voters. For example, if 67 million American women went to the polls, a difference of 10 points would represent 6.7 million votes, enough to assure that Barack Obama would remain in the White House. A recent poll in North Carolina gives the 44th precisely that 10-point advantage among women.
With Hillary on the ticket, the difference between Democrat and Republican would be, without a doubt, at least 20 points. Even more, the signal from the voters would be that Obama is preparing for 2016.
And Biden? The VP could take the place of Hillary at the Department of State, a position that he’s always wanted. But let’s not get too excited. Obama is probably not ready for this change. But in five or six months, when the gap between him and Romney narrows? Never say never….
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