More iPads and Less War

The United States is urgently interested in the growth of the European economy.

Four days of summits that have united the four main leaders of the world in Camp David and Chicago left the message clear: The U.S. is urgently interested in the growth of the European economy and wants to settle, in the best way possible, the distraction that, in these moments, represents the war in Afghanistan.

President Barack Obama arrived to the G-8 summit in Camp David with the firm intention of pushing, this time with the complicity of the new French president, François Hollande, for the swift adoption of measures to drive economic activity and consumption in Europe. The European Union, in its entirety, is the principal trade partner of the U.S. For the economy of this country, which grows very timidly, to reach the rhythm necessary to create significant amounts of jobs, there is a need to increase exports, one of the better-performing sectors of the past few years. These jobs are the key for Obama to secure his re-election in November.

In other words, Obama needs Europeans to increase their purchasing power so they can buy more iPads, more Levis, and more Ford cars, and increase his chances for re-election. At the same time, he needs less war. The Afghanistan war is, actually, expensive and unpopular. After the September 11th attacks, George Bush won his re-election thanks to his demonstration of force, especially in Afghanistan. Today that strategy doesn’t work. Today the North Americans do not find enough reasons to continue fighting so far away when they need to devote this money to investments in Michigan and Ohio.

Obama can’t leave Afghanistan like Hollande did. The French president removed his troops ahead of schedule because he knows others will stay there. The American president is obligated to look after the prestige of NATO and his own U.S., which would seriously suffer with an exit that would sound like a retreat.

With that tone, Obama has achieved in the NATO summit in Chicago the closest to an end to the war. More years of military presence still remain, but the deadlines to separate from the conflict are already in place. Psychologically, the war begins to become a thing of the past; that is how the president will win his re-election.

He will not talk much of Afghanistan in his campaign. He will talk often of Europe. The adoption in this continent of a new stimulus policy would mean, furthermore, a ratification of politics that Obama had implemented in this country since the beginning of his presidency. In turn, the failure of austerity represents a disapproval of the proposal that Republican candidate Mitt Romney will include in his platform.

An economically depressed Europe brings about the fall of financial markets — as they have been with force in the past few months — and a general climate of distrust and pessimism that, in good measure, moves to the American election.

With reason, Obama said that these days, “if there are problems in Madrid, there are problems in Milwaukee.” The depression of the Spaniards, in this global reality, is contagious.