Fighting without Breaking Ties Will Be the Theme of Sino-American Relations

President Aquino of the Philippines’ recent trip to America received a great amount of foreign attention. President Obama and Secretary of State Hilary Clinton both met with him. Clinton expressed that America has already stressed many times that they have no position on the South China Sea territory dispute and that they encourage settling the Huangyan Island issue through diplomatic dialogue. Obama, however, praised Aquino as “a thoughtful and very helpful partner,” promising to ensure free travel in the South China Sea.

Common belief among the outside world is that Aquino’s trip to the USA was merely “joining America to regulate China,” but overall the rewards weren’t very large. America continues to be neutral on this sensitive issue, having never taken aggressive measures. Looking at the present, even though America and the Philippines have a military alliance, America will never wage war on China on behalf of the Philippines.

Recently, the South China Sea dispute has become more international and complex. The Philippines, Vietnam, and other countries are continuously strengthening their actual presence and control in the contested maritime territory and islands of the South China Sea. While China and the Philippines are deadlocked on the Huangyan Island issue, American Secretary of Defense Panetta is bombastically declaring that America will maintain six aircraft carrier strike groups in the Asia-Pacific region and that by 2020, 60 percent of battleships will be deployed in the Pacific Ocean. American “migration of military power east” both agrees with the interests of American economic development and also the strategy of surrounding and laying out a defense against China.

The Relationship Among the Dominant Nations in the End Is a Competitive One

For the past few years, the American and Chinese economies have been in a give and take, with America clearly feeling the pressure from China. America has always worried that a rise in China’s strength would constitute a threat and containing China’s development and power has already become a principal strategic mission. Using disputes between China and surrounding nations over issues such as territory and the fishing industry, America has continuously incited and instigated surrounding nations to create a disturbance and cause China increased disorder. At the same time, America is constantly strengthening military alliances with countries such as Japan and South Korea, as well as strengthening military presence in Southeast Asia. America frequently conducts military exercises with China’s surrounding nations, including Japan, South Korea, Australia, India, the Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Cambodia, Thailand and Mongolia, thus strengthening their own military presence and developing new roads for military development. Resources show that in 2011 America conducted a total of 172 bilateral and multilateral military exercises in the Asia-Pacific region. The South China Sea dispute is already becoming an important starting point for America’s pinning down of China.

Lieutenant-General Ren Haiquan, vice president of the China Military Academy, responded to American “migration of military power east” at the Shangri-La Dialogue, where I believe he in actuality represented the entire Chinese military. Lieutenant-General Ren Haiquan expressed that we should not regard this phenomenon as desperately serious, but we also should not be indifferent, instead preparing for the worst while striving for the best. He went so far as to frankly say that when the fundamental interests of our nation are threatened, he will take counteractive measures and strike fear into their hearts. One can imagine, if war broke out between China and America, it’s possible that this world could be completely destroyed.

Due to the conflict produced by the structure of the international system, the differences in American and Chinese politics and society and the influences of third party factors, Sino-American relations are doomed to layer upon layer of conflict. However, both nations are equally interested in seeking dialogue and cooperation. So far, there are already upwards of 60 regularly scheduled dialogues between Chinese and American deputy secretaries and high-ranking officials. At present China and America are already bound together in economics. If China withdrew from the U.S. market, a large part of China’s foreign trade industry would shut down and a great number of workers would lose their jobs. This would not only inflict heavy damage on the economy, but would jeopardize social stability. In addition, if America were to leave behind China’s cheap products and U.S. dollar loans, it would not only make America’s bad economy even worse, but would also potentially destabilize the entire U.S. currency system.

At present international relations are tangled and complicated and the safety challenges China is facing are diverse, complicated and severe. Even if America repeatedly publicizes its position, that it is not looking to restrain China’s policies and welcomes China’s peaceful emergence to power, what America says and does are not completely identical. For the Diaoyu Islands issue, the South China Sea issue and the Taiwan issue, America has sufficient strategic weaponry to counter China. To calmly and actively dissolve these crises and threats, we need to cultivate a new way of thinking. Current Sino-Russian relations are the best in history. America is not only restraining China, but is similarly restraining Russia. China and Russia don’t have the power to respond to the challenge of America and its allies on their own. They can only form an alliance and strategically advance and retreat, jointly standing against America. This will in fact give rise to the establishment of a mechanism of checks, balances, and restrictions, functioning to make America exercise a bit of restraint on their own actions.

America has already constructed a system of alliances surrounding China. If China invariably remains steady, then it will never be able to break away from America and be fair to its surrounding nations. China has its own strategic interests and if America and its agents in Southeast Asia encroach on China’s core interests, China will have to pay a large price. This is not only a matter of power, but also a matter of confidence and intelligence.