Obama and Youth

Until November, let’s slice the American electoral cake in different formats. In early July, the cake is slightly more favorable to President Barack Obama. In his recipe for re-election, the youth vote is baking powder. The problem is that the same chemistry does not exist in the youth electorate as it did in 2008, when Obama won two out of three of the votes of Americans under 30 years of age. This week, even the New York Times, a paper sympathetic to the president, warned of this lack of chemistry.

There are obvious reasons for this lack of leaven, related factors such as, well, the economic cake, which did not grow, and which particularly affects youth who need to enter the job market and are strapped with high student loans to pay. The disenchantment with Obama is more marked among young people between the ages of 18 to 24.

Also, there is a more general disillusion with a president once associated with the promise of change. For impatient youth, reality has sunk in. There is now disappointment, particularly among young voters who had hoped to force Obama to break with the Bush government on questions of civil liberties. It is no wonder that sectors excited about Obama in 2008 — with promises such as closing the doors of Guantanamo — joined the insurgent campaign of Libertarian Ron Paul in the Republican primaries. This group now will not join Mitt Romney on a large scale.

Recent polls by the Pew Research Center show that Obama has a 28 point advantage over Romney (it drops quite a bit in the 18 to 24 year old range.) Many young voters are not crazy about the laissez-faire economics of the Republicans. Although opportunities do exist for the planting of a conservative appeal, seven out of 10 favor more taxes on the rich, and economic policies which diminish the gap between the rich and the poor.

At this time in the electoral battle, the alerts about the disappointment of the youth are convenient for the Democrats. They function as a call to arms. There is no doubt that the president’s campaign will invest crazily (in all senses of the word) to guarantee this slice of the electorate. But it remains to be seen if this group of young people will salute the commander-in-chief or cross their arms. The youth vote will be especially crucial in states that will have hard-fought contests, such as North Carolina and Virginia.