The South China Sea Is Not the Caribbean Sea; Please Don’t Mix It Up, America

Last week, the U.S. State Department publicly criticized China for establishing the city of Sansha and a new garrison. This time, the U.S. didn’t hide its intention to show partiality for the Philippines and Vietnam, but encouraged them to act against China. It’s a big move for the U.S. The Chinese foreign ministry reacted to American criticism on Saturday — its day off. This kind of fierce dispute about eastern territory between these two big countries has been seldom seen before.

China predicted long ago that the U.S. would take a more and more obvious preferential policy on the South China Sea. When the Philippines and Vietnam are offensive, America remains “neutral.” When China shows initiative, the U.S. then immediately gives up its “neutral” policy and jumps out to “balance” China. That’s generally the American attitude.

Until now, the U.S.’ intervention to the South China Sea basically has had no costs. It just says a few words in a fine tone to provoke the fighting will of the Philippines and Vietnam, showing its support by drawing a “candy cake” for them and putting psychological pressure on China. This maintains the “tension” of the situation and the validity of U.S. intervention.

The city of Sansha is already established. China, of course, will not change its mind just for some American gossip. America’s attitude has almost no effect on China.

This attitude will encourage the Philippines and Vietnam. But these two countries shall not be so stupid as to believe America’s words by thinking they will have a powerful effect on the South China Sea and change something. Even without the statement from Washington, the two countries will continue to argue with China. With America’s intervention, the actual bargaining counter of the two countries will not be increased.

It is a matter of fact that the U.S. does have influence on the South China Sea, but it’s also apparent that the U.S. cannot do whatever it wants there. Not long ago, the Philippines and Vietnam’s provocation toward China was very active and presumptuous. The U.S.’ potential influence can be felt there. But such influence, which America casts in a glance, makes a cough that can blow the water on the South China Sea less and less.

Now the U.S. publicly criticizes China for establishing the city of Sansha. It is like firing an arrow without any costs. The U.S. probably will be sharper in its statements, but these will become nonsense in the end; its actual influence on the South China Sea will definitely go down.

The current tense situation in the South China Sea has already alarmed the countries within this area. The U.S. takes a step further to provoke antagonism between these countries who claim ownership. The Philippines and Vietnam will not necessarily follow the U.S. They are clear on what it means if they follow the U.S. They will gradually doubt the intentions of the U.S.

The South China Sea is a controversial area. The dispute shall be resolved following principles and basic rules. In the past, the Philippines and Vietnam hoped that China would give up its territorial integrity. They need to adjust themselves to better see the reality.

China is not ready to take immediate action to completely solve the South China Sea issues now. But China will for sure not allow the Philippines and Vietnam to determine the pattern on their own wishes with the support of the U.S. It’s very ridiculous. We will persuade the Philippines and Vietnam to forget about it.

In the future, if the Philippines and Vietnam make more plays on the South China Sea, China’s resistance will be more determined — just like in the dialogue this year. All parties shall resume a peaceful position. China has this wish. The Philippines and Vietnam shall not cheat themselves and think they have other options.

The U.S. won the last time it provoked the South China Sea dialogue, but it cannot keep provoking and think it will always win. The biggest wish of each party shall be stability instead of turmoil. America shall put its efforts on this direction, which bears the true wish of all parties; its influence can then be extended in the long run rather than resisted.

The South China Sea is not the Caribbean Sea. America shall be aware of it.