The South China Sea Is Not the Caribbean Sea; Please Don’t Mix It Up, America

Published in Guangming
(China) on 6 August 2012
by Editor:彭剑 (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Christine.Xiao. Edited by .

Edited by Gillian Palmer

Last week, the U.S. State Department publicly criticized China for establishing the city of Sansha and a new garrison. This time, the U.S. didn’t hide its intention to show partiality for the Philippines and Vietnam, but encouraged them to act against China. It’s a big move for the U.S. The Chinese foreign ministry reacted to American criticism on Saturday — its day off. This kind of fierce dispute about eastern territory between these two big countries has been seldom seen before.

China predicted long ago that the U.S. would take a more and more obvious preferential policy on the South China Sea. When the Philippines and Vietnam are offensive, America remains “neutral.” When China shows initiative, the U.S. then immediately gives up its “neutral” policy and jumps out to “balance” China. That’s generally the American attitude.

Until now, the U.S.’ intervention to the South China Sea basically has had no costs. It just says a few words in a fine tone to provoke the fighting will of the Philippines and Vietnam, showing its support by drawing a “candy cake” for them and putting psychological pressure on China. This maintains the “tension” of the situation and the validity of U.S. intervention.

The city of Sansha is already established. China, of course, will not change its mind just for some American gossip. America’s attitude has almost no effect on China.

This attitude will encourage the Philippines and Vietnam. But these two countries shall not be so stupid as to believe America’s words by thinking they will have a powerful effect on the South China Sea and change something. Even without the statement from Washington, the two countries will continue to argue with China. With America’s intervention, the actual bargaining counter of the two countries will not be increased.

It is a matter of fact that the U.S. does have influence on the South China Sea, but it’s also apparent that the U.S. cannot do whatever it wants there. Not long ago, the Philippines and Vietnam’s provocation toward China was very active and presumptuous. The U.S.’ potential influence can be felt there. But such influence, which America casts in a glance, makes a cough that can blow the water on the South China Sea less and less.

Now the U.S. publicly criticizes China for establishing the city of Sansha. It is like firing an arrow without any costs. The U.S. probably will be sharper in its statements, but these will become nonsense in the end; its actual influence on the South China Sea will definitely go down.

The current tense situation in the South China Sea has already alarmed the countries within this area. The U.S. takes a step further to provoke antagonism between these countries who claim ownership. The Philippines and Vietnam will not necessarily follow the U.S. They are clear on what it means if they follow the U.S. They will gradually doubt the intentions of the U.S.

The South China Sea is a controversial area. The dispute shall be resolved following principles and basic rules. In the past, the Philippines and Vietnam hoped that China would give up its territorial integrity. They need to adjust themselves to better see the reality.

China is not ready to take immediate action to completely solve the South China Sea issues now. But China will for sure not allow the Philippines and Vietnam to determine the pattern on their own wishes with the support of the U.S. It’s very ridiculous. We will persuade the Philippines and Vietnam to forget about it.

In the future, if the Philippines and Vietnam make more plays on the South China Sea, China’s resistance will be more determined — just like in the dialogue this year. All parties shall resume a peaceful position. China has this wish. The Philippines and Vietnam shall not cheat themselves and think they have other options.

The U.S. won the last time it provoked the South China Sea dialogue, but it cannot keep provoking and think it will always win. The biggest wish of each party shall be stability instead of turmoil. America shall put its efforts on this direction, which bears the true wish of all parties; its influence can then be extended in the long run rather than resisted.

The South China Sea is not the Caribbean Sea. America shall be aware of it.


南海不是加勒比海,美国人别糊涂 2012-08-06 09:54:21 来源:环球时报   查看评论 进入光明网BBS 手机看新闻   美国国务院上周末公开批评中国设立三沙市并建立新警备区,这种不再隐瞒偏袒菲越,并鼓励它们与中国作对的做法,对美国来说也是尺度不小的行动。中国外交部在星期六的休息时间发出声音回击美方指责,这是两个大国就东亚领土争议不多见的激烈外交争吵。

  美国会在南海问题上采取越来越明显的偏袒政策,这早在中国人的意料之中。当菲越比较主动时,美国就会“中立”些。当中国有了一点主动时,美国就立刻放弃“中立”,直接跳出来“平衡”中国。美国的态度大体就是这么个规律。

  美国迄今对南海争端的介入基本是不花本钱的,就是说几句倾向性不断微调的话,刺激菲越的斗志,给两国画一张美国支持它们的“糖饼”,给中国施加一些心理压力,从而保持局势的热度以及美国介入的有效性。

  三沙市已经成立,中国当然不会因为美国人几句闲话就改主意。美国这一表态对中国的影响差不多是零。

  这一表态会鼓舞菲越,但相信两国也没那么傻,以为美国人的话会在南海“一句顶一万句”,能真改变南海的什么。没华盛顿的这个表态,两国也会继续同中国闹。有了这个表态,两国的实际工具也不会增多。

  美国在南海有影响力是事实,但美国不能在南海随心所欲也是明摆着的。前一段时间菲越对中国的挑衅相当活跃、放肆,这当中已有美国的潜在影响。美国使个眼色、咳嗽一声就能吹起南海风浪的那种影响力,其实已经用得差不多了。

  美国现在公开指责中国设立三沙市,是它向南海不投本钱就施加影响的强弩之末,美国今后还可能把话说得更尖锐,但这些话逐渐将变成废话,它们对南海的实际影响必呈递减之势。

  南海当前的紧张,已让区内国家都有了警觉。美国进一步挑拨南海声索国之间对抗,菲越未必会真跟着美国往前走。它们清楚再接着往前走有可能意味着什么,它们会逐渐对美国的意图产生怀疑。

  南海是争议地区,既有争议,就应符合争议和解决争议的基本规律。过去菲越对让中国在主权问题上屈服有太不切实际的幻想,它们面临重新回到现实主义必须做的回调。

  中国也没准备现在就彻底解决南海问题,但中国不会允许菲越仗美国之势,反而以它们的意志确定南海格局。这太荒唐可笑,劝菲越趁早死了这条心。

  今后菲越在南海越折腾,中国的反制就会越坚决,就像今年南海局势所表现的那样。南海各方应重新回到和平相处,中国有这样的愿望,菲越不应骗自己,以为它们有别的选择。

  美国在上一轮挑拨南海局势得手之后,莫以为可以“一招鲜吃遍天”,不停地在南海挑拨下去。南海各方愿望的最大公约数不是动荡,而是稳定。美国的用力方向只有对上南海地区这一真实愿望,它的影响力才有长久施展空间,才不会受到抵制。

  南海不是加勒比海,美国人对此应当清楚。▲

[责任编辑:彭剑]
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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