Romney and the (Few) Ways That Could Lead Him to the White House

Could Romney win the presidential election without the Ohio votes? Is gaining in Nevada, Iowa and Colorado enough to make up for Ohio? Here is a model showing how the Republican candidate could be elected President of the U.S. However, the way it goes is anything but straightforward.

Is the road to the White House really blocked for Mitt Romney if he doesn’t get [enough] votes in Ohio? If so, what could be the alternative for the Republican candidate? First of all, let’s have a look at the facts before thinking about the field options.

1) Romney’s good performance during the TV debate in Denver guaranteed him the approval of the Americans, an increased popularity from the electors and undoubtedly major support. The polls measured these mood swings and assured that his lagging behind Obama — be it on the national scale or in the nine key states — narrowed so much so that the race was either close to zero or even swung in his favor. And yet, as a very detailed survey published by the Washington Post put it, Obama still leads (49 percent to 46 percent) among likely voters, and not even one voter out of eight would be willing to change their candidate during the race. In Ohio, Romney is about 5 percent behind Obama.

2) Two-thirds of Americans have already voted. The exit polls conducted on these voters give a clear advantage to Obama (59 percent).

3) The demographic changes between 2008 and 2011 ([as seen in] data from the 2011 census) show that red states will have more electors than the traditionally blue ones. For example, Texas has gone from 34 to 38 electoral votes, and New York and Ohio (here we go again) both lost two, going down respectively from 31 to 29 and from 20 to 18. Obama in 2008 got 365 electoral votes; winning the same states today, he would get 358 votes. The Republican ticket would go from 173 to 180. These are minor differences, but in a case of a neck and neck [race], these differences could become important, if not decisive.

So Romney’s strategists have prepared a model of an electoral map that doesn’t include Ohio. But only a few people really believe that a win without the Buckeye State could be possible, as proven by the debates and rallies both Ryan and Romney had these last days in this state. In order to “substitute” Ohio’s 18 electoral votes, the Republican candidate would need to snatch Iowa (7 votes), Nevada (6 votes) and Colorado (9 votes) from Obama. What remains fundamental (see what happened in 2000) is the conquest of the Florida’s 29 electoral votes. (Let’s take for granted the victory of North Carolina’s 15 votes and possibly Virginia’s 13 electoral votes, even though they’re still neck and neck there.) Where would all that lead Romney if he were to snatch six key states from Obama? He would have exactly 269 votes: parity. In order to shatter this balance, New Hampshire’s 4 votes would suffice. (The rivals are de facto neck and neck there, despite the ARG survey that credits it to the conservatives.) That way, Romney could become president without Ohio. It would be the very first time a Republican entered the Oval Office without the Buckeye State’s electors. But how realistic is this road? For sure, it is not impossible, but certainly difficult. That’s mainly for two reasons.

1) In the model, Romney’s success in several parts of the country where he’s progressing but constantly behind Obama by a hair’s breadth is taken for granted. For example, in Nevada, two-thirds of the pivotal Hispanic electorate is for Barack Obama.

2) The scenario provides a direct route without any obstacles or problems. And there is no plan B. If he doesn’t get one of these states, even the “tiny” ones like Nevada or Iowa, it will jeopardize everything. And in several key states, Romney doesn’t have reassuring advantages that would allow him not to compete or invest time and resource i.e. money destined for other challenges. From today until Nov. 6, Romney must get committed to almost every open front. (Perhaps only North Carolina and Indiana are certain to end in the red states’ box.)

In conclusion, Romney’s TV performance in Denver refreshed his image, but it hasn’t solved his problems on the electoral map. Of course, if Romney were to win Ohio, it would be another story, as history has taught us.