White Voters Support Romney, Minorities Obama

Mitt Romney is 23 points ahead of Barack Obama among white voters. Obama leads his rival by 90 points among blacks, 50 points among immigrants from Latin America and 9 points among Asians. In 2008, the current president won 44 percent of the white vote. In this election, the polls indicate that he will barely achieve 37 percent.

For this reason, although Obama has the title of “post-racial president,” in reality, it is the opposite. Overall, whites are voting for Romney and minorities (Asians, blacks and Latinos) for Obama. In fact, these are the most racially polarized elections in the United States since 1988, when Republican George H.W. Bush destroyed Democrat Michael Dukakis. At that time, Dukakis had the support of minority groups.

The big difference is that now, the minority groups are larger. In 2010, 69.1 percent of Americans were white. In 2012, that percentage has dropped to 63.7 percent. In 2050, whites will no longer be the majority in the United States. That implies that the Republicans have a large problem: Their electorate is on the way to becoming a minority.

In this election, in fact, the big question for the Republican Party is how to successfully incorporate minority groups. An example: A third of the population of Texas is of Hispanic origin. Until now, that group has barely voted. However, if the same dynamic as in California continues, the group’s participation will gradually increase, with members aligning themselves with Democrats. If Texas is no longer guaranteed for Republicans in the presidential election, that party will see their power base gravely threatened.

Beyond these considerations, however, the racial vote implies that ethnic divisions continue to be a determining factor when the time comes to choose who is elected in the United States.