Re-election or Rotation

Probably one of the most watched and commented upon political events in the world is the election in the United States. This is largely due to its hegemonic power and the fact that the elected president is perceived as if he was the president of the world, even in a time when we speak of the decline of American economic power and question its international leadership. It seems like an exaggeration, but you must not forget that an electoral process as passionate as this creates great expectations. Something worth noting is that this process involves the Democrat Barack Obama seeking re-election for for a second presidential term against the aspirations of Mitt Romney. Romney is the candidate for returning the Republican Party to power only four years after George W. Bush-style Republican leadership ended at the White House. Bush left behind a long aftermath of mistakes and hardships for his country and the international community.

Predictions are reserved, although it is possible to discern a slight preference for Obama among commentators. If we look at the wishes of international public opinion, it becomes clear there is definite favor for the continuation of the Obama administration. Moreover, if the television debates between the two candidates are taken together, the scoreboard would favor the Democratic candidate two out of three times. Opinion polls show another reality.

According to the latest poll conducted by CNN/ORC International, both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney have support from 49 percent of the electorate, and preferences among citizens in different districts are practically identical: Obama has a positive rating from 52 percent of people, and Romney has 51 percent approval. Also, 56 percent believe that Obama has the necessary qualities of a president, and 55 percent think the same of Romney. If anything, in this technical tie between the two contenders, it should be remembered that the president is not elected by a direct vote of the citizens but by the Electoral College. This makes it possible for one of the two to win the popular vote but still lose the presidency. In this case, experts say Obama’s victory is much more likely due to his dominance in several key states.

All things considered, the race for the presidency has been relatively bland, and it may have been only the management of the situation after Hurricane Sandy that put salt and pepper into the process. Despite this, essential points have been made in the election concerning the destination of hegemonic power: driving the economy into a strong recovery, reversing unemployment and putting the country on a path of development with forward-thinking toward educational, social and technological materials, to name a few areas among others. Outwardly, important subjects include rebuilding the prestige lost by the United States in various parts of the world, especially in Islamic societies, and assuming renewed leadership in the context of greater activism and influence from emerging powers, particularly with respect to China.

Given the extent and importance of the presidency of the United States, it seems to have been overlooked that voters will also elect the House of Representatives, a third of the Senate and 13 governors. They will decide on 177 referendums in some states, among which include the legalization of marijuana for medical and recreational use, gay marriage, the possible abolition of the death penalty, euthanasia, abortion and limiting health care reforms undertaken by the Obama administration. In this complex scenario, experts believe that the Democrats will entrench their dominance of the Senate, just as the Republicans will maintain control of the House. Thus, the new U.S. president, whoever he may be, will have a complex scenario in order to push through legislation and implementation of his policies.

Largely because of the situation currently affecting the country, American society is delicate on all fronts, despite the modest progress made by President Obama in four years. Certainly the most noteworthy example of progress has been avoiding a greater recession in the country. And as their own surveys suggest, the U.S. is a polarized society, arguably disillusioned in light of the luster lost by the country in recent years. The winner will face formidable challenges, the crux of which will [depend] on regaining social confidence. Given Obama’s proven intelligence, his understanding of international politics and his pragmatic approach to political tasks, it seems that he is the person best equipped to [continue to] undertake the task — despite the disappointments he has generated among the most progressive sectors. The gravitation of the Republican ideology, embodied by Romney, towards giving the impression of an unconvincing project of the past, including its policy of reducing government action and of fiscal reform, is also in Obama’s favor. Not to mention, Romney’s dalliances between conservative Tea Party-style radicalism and his more recent centrist position portray him as a vague and unpredictable politician.