What Is Joe Biden’s Secret Factor?

The U.S. vice president’s influence on domestic policy is growing.

The newly appointed U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s debut was nearly ruined. The Syrian opposition leader refused to meet with him at a conference in Rome. A huge scandal was brewing, and it was threatening the new secretary of state’s authority. How could the rebellious puppet be brought to his senses? Kerry decided to enlist Vice President Joseph Biden’s help. The latter talked some sense into the pretentious Moaz al-Khatib with one phone call, and Moaz al-Khatib agreed to meet with Kerry.

This episode is one of many that show Joe Biden’s constantly growing influence. The predictions about the vice president’s increased influence on foreign policy during Barack Obama’s second term as president are already coming true. Soon, Obama will travel to visit Israel. This will be his first visit to the Israeli region in his second term. Who is paving the way for him to the Promised Land? Joe Biden. It was he who spoke recently at the annual conference of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the most powerful Israeli lobby in America. The second keynote speaker at the conference was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was flown into Washington especially for this purpose.

This was not Biden’s first appearance at an AIPAC conference. When he addressed AIPAC in 2009, Biden laid out his boss’s demands, although he gave an advance warning that “you’re not going to like this.” (He was referring to the issue of the West Bank settlements.) However, the second time, Biden did not sound so strict. His goal was to create a fertile ground on the eve of Obama’s visit. According to the Israeli ambassador to the United States Michael Oren, “Biden has great credibility with the pro-Israel community. He has always been able to speak candidly and openly with us, all the while making it clear that he stands foursquare with the president.”

But Biden’s influence is not limited to diplomacy. He also has a strong influence in domestic policy. A recent example of this was when Chuck Hagel’s Senate confirmation as defense secretary did not go smoothly. Hagel was viewed as having anti-Israel views and being “soft” with respect to Iran. Biden worked the doubting senators’ phones. The vice president’s telephone lobbying helped to end the filibuster and bring about Hagel’s confirmation.

According to analysts, Obama and Biden “sing” in a duet. The only exception was Biden’s disagreement with the president’s order to eliminate Osama bin Laden. Biden worried that the failure of such an operation could affect Obama’s re-election chances. But Obama shared, and continues to share, Biden’s cautious approach to the war in Afghanistan and the civil war in Syria. Biden is in favor of accelerating the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan and against arming Syrian rebels with U.S. weapons. In case of the former, he had to overcome the opposition of Secretary of State Clinton and CIA Director Petraeus. Obama took Biden’s side.

With the changes in the new Obama administration, Biden’s influence became even greater. In the Obama administration’s first term, Biden had to compete with such “heavyweights” as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who had a special status, and their own political base. Their successors Kerry and Hagel don’t have all that. Their White House and Congress connections are much weaker than those of their predecessors, and they largely owe their appointments to Biden. According to Vali Nasr, a former State Department official who is currently the dean of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, “It’s not so much that he intends to expand his influence, but his stature will rise by default.”

Kerry and Hagel’s foreign policy views match Biden’s. They are also against U.S. involvement in big wars. Biden also has other supporters in strategic parts of the administration. Among them, Antony Blinken is worth mentioning. Until recently, Blinken was the vice president’s foreign policy aide. Now, he has been promoted to the president’s deputy national security adviser. National Security Advisor Thomas Donilon is a longtime friend of Biden. Donilon and Blinken resolve conflicts among the State Department, the Pentagon and the CIA. Through them, Biden will influence this process.

Biden’s new team also has a “renegade” who took Blinken’s previous position. Jacob Sullivan, who is a rising star, was Hillary Clinton’s top adviser. In the State Department, Sullivan, who is currently 36 years old, used to be the policy planning director. He accompanied Clinton on her many trips and is considered an expert on China and the Arab world. Obama himself recruited Sullivan for Biden by calling Sullivan directly from Air Force One. In well-informed circles, Sullivan’s new position is considered “symptomatic.” Since he worked for Hillary Clinton in the 2008 presidential primaries, his experience could be useful to Biden if Biden decided to get involved in the presidential election in 2016.

During Obama’s first term, among other matters, Biden oversaw Iraq by direct presidential order. He deserves much of the credit for the nearing end of the war in Iraq and the withdrawal of U.S. troops. Now, according to some reports, Obama is going to “throw” Biden onto China. As the vice president, Biden has kept in touch with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, who has now become the leader of China. They met twice in Beijing in 2011 and in Washington D.C. in 2012. Now, Xi is Obama’s counterpart. But Biden’s experience and his personal acquaintance with the new Chinese leader make Biden’s informal relationship with Beijing very useful for the White House.

Biden’s huge foreign policy influence in the new Obama administration is undeniable. According to Benjamin Rhodes, a deputy national security adviser, “Biden is very closely integrated into the foreign policy portfolio. He’s a key player that can take on specific issues, build specific relationships.” The role of a key player, which Biden is playing more and more, fits perfectly into Obama’s overall strategy of the White House fully controlling foreign policy and national security.

Lastly, Biden has one more trump card, his charisma. He is, perhaps, “the most human” person in the Obama administration.* His charm melts the hearts of his political rivals’ wives. When meeting with ordinary Americans, he goes after the elderly housewives and finds his way into the kids’ hearts. He is kind, cordial, frank. So sometimes he makes verbal gaffes, which only increase his popularity. Sometimes, Biden even surpasses his boss. For example, on the eve of the 2012 elections he called for the legalization of gay marriage. Obama was not ready for it yet, but Biden’s move made him catch up and side with the vice president. This made Obama’s victory stronger, because gays are an impressive, educated and affluent minority of the American electorate.

Biden is now leading the campaign for controlling the sale of firearms. Here, his temperament is more than appropriate. He sincerely grieves for serial killers’ victims, and is frankly outraged by the “merchants of death.”

“Old man” Joe is a former senator. That is why he still has good connections on Capitol Hill. He is a devoted vice president. This is why he is an insider in the White House administration. He has Obama’s trust and support, which is the main source of Biden’s influence. As a person, he complements the somewhat academic Obama and serves as the president’s drive belt with respect to the American liberals. He is a ready-made Democratic candidate for the 2016 presidential election. Only Hillary Clinton could give him a run for his money. But in a competition between Biden and Clinton, Obama will take Biden’s side.

*Translator’s note: “the most human” is a reference to how the poet Mayakovsky described Lenin.