John Kerry Ventures into Korea's Cauldron

Seoul fears that John Kerry’s visit will provoke North Korea.

There is a power struggle at the 38th parallel. A few hours before John Kerry’s arrival in Seoul, North Korean soldiers were testing the U.S.’ patience and the Pentagon’s spy satellites. On Thursday, two missiles were suddenly moved to the peninsula’s east coast and aimed into the sky, placing military staff on alert.

The young North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, considers the arrival of the newly appointed U.S. secretary of state in allied South Korea on Friday as his golden opportunity to defy Washington by leading an act of provocation against the U.S. Strategists are expecting an “imminent” launching of a medium-range missile like the Musudan: North Korea transported two such missiles by train to its east coast at the start of the week. This weapon has never been test-launched at more than a 1,860 mile range and, in theory, is capable of reaching the U.S. base in Guam in the Pacific. “North Korea … with its bellicose rhetoric, its actions, has been skating very close to a dangerous line,” declared a concerned Chuck Hagel, U.S. secretary of defense. “Their actions and their words have not helped defuse a combustible situation.”

There are 28,500 troops currently deployed on the peninsula. U.S. President Barack Obama, who will meet with U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on Thursday evening at the White House, called for Pyongyang to end its “belligerent approach.”

“Nobody wants to see a conflict,” he added. “The United States will take all necessary steps to protect its people and to meet our obligations under our alliances in the region.”

Veering Off Course

In reality, the U.S. armed forces do not believe North Korea will attack the U.S. but fear that a missile veering off course or a trajectory error could destabilize Northeast Asia. In the last few hours, the Korean People’s Army confused matters by moving several mobile launchers to the outskirts of the city of Wonsan and to the South Hangyong province, thus inciting fear that a launching was imminent. U.S. forces have heightened their surveillance levels, which they hope will allow them to track down a missile mere seconds after it has been launched and, if necessary, intercept it. Japan has anxiously deployed Patriot missiles to the heart of Tokyo and Okinawa, never forgetting the bitter memory of North Korean projectiles flying over its archipelago in 1998 and 2009.

In Seoul, life goes on in the main commercial arteries of this megalopolis of 15 million. According to a senior South Korean army official, nobody is expecting North Korea to fire off Scud or Rodong missiles, an attack that would set off an “immediate” response from the allied forces. Strategists are instead betting that, in a bid for attention and as it did during the test launching of Taepodong missiles in 2006 and 2009, North Korea will launch a powerful missile that will disintegrate over the Pacific after a long trajectory, thus leaving an impression and making headline news around the world. In order to calm tensions and offer a solution to Kim, the Pentagon stated that the U.S. will not shoot down a missile not directed at allied territory.

According to most experts, the threat of a Musudan launch is the “Supreme Leader’s” latest “bluff.”

“it does not have the resources to strike Guam. A missile must be tested many times before it is operational, and it still has a long way to go on the matter of its missiles being capable of re-entering the atmosphere,” explains Antoine Bondaz, researcher at Sciences Po and the French Defense Procurement Agency.

This is without taking into account that North Korea does not have the know-how to scale down a nuclear weapon in order to mount it onto a missile.

In reality, the launching of a missile, which could occur on April 15, the anniversary of dynasty founder Kim Il Sung’s birthday, is a political weapon being wielded by his grandson, who has been involved in a game of bluff with Washington since the end of January.

“He is betting on scaring the Americans into submission; he wants to force them to come to the bargaining table to negotiate. North Korea is not a priority for Obama; therefore, Kim needs to make a lot of noise in the hopes of extracting security and economic guarantees via a peace treaty,” deduces Cheong Seong-chang, an expert at Sejong Institute.

A Game of Bluff

After having conducted a nuclear test on Feb. 12, threatened the White House with a “thermonuclear war” and barred laborers from working at the Kaesong industrial complex, Kim Jong Il’s successor, who grew up in Switzerland, seems determined to continue outdoing himself with his threats. The U.S., however, is refusing to play the game for now.

Diplomatic response, as opposed to confrontation, will be at the heart of discussions between South Korean President Park Geun-hye and Kerry, who arrives from a G-8 meeting in London to remind South Korea of the U.S.’ commitment to defending its ally. If North Korea launches a missile, the allies will ask the U.N. Security Council to call an urgent meeting; this is far from the bilateral negotiations hoped for by Pyongyang.

“If the Americans agree to talk to him, Kim will have won his bet,” speculates Bondaz. Kim Jong Un will continue his game of bluff.