China Believes US Intends an End to Communist Party Rule

In a speech hosted by the Center for American Progress, a Washington think tank, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden indicated that the Obama administration will work toward implementation of the “re-balance toward Asia” strategy, and will place special emphasis on supporting free trade, preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, augmenting humanitarian aid during major disasters, decreasing conflict between nations, and addressing the “persistent threat” that North Korea presents. At the same time, America will actively establish strategic partnerships with friends and allies. The U.S. wishes to be a partner in Asia in establishing the 21st century “rules of the road,” rules which will not only apply to the economic arena, but will also extend to security issues, he said. The vice president further noted that the United States’ longstanding alliances with Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines and Thailand will be the cornerstones of the re-balance strategy.

US-Chinese Competition Heats Up

On July 22, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released its “2013 Blue Book on the United States” in Beijing. The report predicted that as mainland China rapidly gains strength over the next four years and the power disparity between the U.S. and China shrinks, how America responds to this “rise” will continue to be an important consideration in the Obama administration’s policies toward Beijing. Furthermore, the report made special note of the likelihood that the U.S. will alternate between viewing China as an opponent and a partner, and that U.S. policies toward China and the rest of the Asia-Pacific region will become increasingly interlinked, while bilateral interaction between the U.S. and China will revolve more closely around economic and security issues. Additionally, the report emphasized that future relations will most likely remain fundamentally stable even as competition continues to intensify.

U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel has stressed that he supports President Obama’s re-balance strategy, and that while the rise of mainland China brings with it opportunity, the relative lack of transparency regarding its intentions will likely be a source of tension in the region. He also explained that the Chinese Communist Party’s long-term military goals focus on a comprehensive military modernization [that will make them] capable of quickly winning a high-intensity conflict. As such, the U.S. should continue to monitor the course of this military modernization, as well as encourage greater transparency from Beijing in military and security affairs. Accordingly, Hagel acknowledged the value of U.S.-Chinese military exchanges.

Hagel believes that moving forward with deployments in the Asia-Pacific region is of paramount importance, and that the U.S. Department of Defense should provide guarantees of security to its allies as a deterrent and must obtain victory during periods of conflict. This is because the re-balance is vital to future U.S. interests, but it must be handled intelligently, making adequate use of the Navy, Air Force and Army while not sacrificing strength in the Middle East, he said.

US Moves to Encircle China

Although the U.S. has come under pressure from reductions to its defense budget, it remains determined to bolster its military forces in Asia and the Pacific to maintain a political and economic advantage, as the region is set to become the world’s political, economic and military nucleus in the 21st century. U.S. Commander of Pacific Air Forces Herbert Carlisle expressed that Beijing’s “aggressive approach to territorial discussions” increases the potential for miscalculation, but has also aided Washington in strengthening its relationships with allies in the region. He also revealed that the U.S. will continue to increase its military presence in Asia and the Pacific, and in particular, will continue to shift forces over from Europe.

The U.S. and Chinese leadership are both aware of the crucial nature of developing a constructive and cooperative partnership, but the two nations have thus far had difficulty moving past their mutual mistrust when dealing with key issues in international strategy. The Obama administration believes that the unwillingness of the authorities in Beijing to hand Snowden over to the U.S., instead allowing him to fly to Moscow, abundantly demonstrates that China’s goodwill toward the U.S. has its limits.

From Beijing’s perspective, U.S. strategic intent toward China has long been nebulous, while the economic, military and diplomatic pillars of its re-balance strategy have shown themselves to be progressive steps toward the encirclement and exclusion of China. Consequently, despite U.S. attempts to persuade Beijing that it does not seek to contain China, the CCP brass remain unconvinced. They now suspect that the true strategic target of the U.S. is the end of Communist Party rule.

The author is an advisor to the National Security Division of the National Policy Foundation in Taiwan.