Haunted by the Potential Lack of Action from Congress, the Administration Picks Up the Pace

In Washington, the suspense is heavy over the way that Congress will deal with the agonizing dilemma brought to them by Obama, who is betting his presidency on the Syrian affair.

To strike or not to strike? The debate rages on in a city transformed into a pressure cooker, where opinions clash and accumulate, without any clear picture of what the outcome will be. On television, radio and the Internet, experts, policymakers and military leaders weigh the risks of acting or abstaining.

In Congress, elected officials who have returned from vacation attend classified defense briefings organized by the White House, which has mounted an all-out lobbying operation to try to convince Congress to support its plan of limited military action in the name of international law and moral rights. John Kerry spent the entire week on the Hill, responding to Congress’ concerns, accompanied by Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Martin Dempsey.

From St. Petersburg, a tired Obama is also communicating nonstop, placing calls to elected officials in spite of the time difference, when he is not busy trying to convince foreign leaders and journalists of the merits of his position. He admitted today at a press conference that getting Congress on his side was “a heavy lift.” “People [are] worried about a slippery slope” that an intervention represents, and “how effective a limited action might be,” he said.

“He looks a little miserable,” says a CNN reporter. “Probably because he is uncomfortable with the role in which he finds himself,” replies a newscaster, recalling that “Obama is seen as the man who engineered the orderly withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan and the American domestic renaissance, the famous nation building ‘at home.’”*

Concern over the outcome of a vote is so great that the president canceled his trip to California and announced that he will speak to the nation on Tuesday to ask for their support. Speculation is rife about what could be on the calendar in the next few days. Some say that the Senate could vote as early as Monday and the House on Tuesday, because “the more time passes the more the reluctance increases,” notes John Gizzi, a journalist with the conservative publication Newsmax, who is betting on a successful yes, albeit with a small margin. “When I count the votes of tea party libertarians and the anti-war left, I don’t see a majority against the president,” he said. Gizzi stated that the lobbying operation led by Kerry is very organized and “convincing.” Other observers are much more skeptical. Voters’ pressure on their elected representatives to vote no is apparently huge.*

Many representatives have spoken of receiving hundreds of calls not to engage in the past few days. Nancy Pelosi, the House Democratic leader, favors an intervention because “the credibility of the world leadership” is at stake, and “I don’t think we should be gassing little kids.” Still, she notes that “my caucus is a reflection of our constituents and they are weary of war.”

Lack of constituent support could discourage many congressmen, notes journalist David Harrison, who writes for Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill. He describes “the hesitation” that he feels in the halls of Congress. “What’s crazy,” he says, “is that we are asking if the president is going to have the vote or not. That’s serious. His authority and America’s authority is at stake, and we must hope that the representatives in the House remember that even if they really hate Obama.”*

“If he fails to get a vote, his presidency is over,” echoes another observer, who doesn’t believe it will happen. Obama’s advisers have apparently tried to dissuade him from going to Congress, stressing that he has a 30 percent chance of being turned down. On CNN, one journalist who spoke with members of Congress recently announced that a small group of Democrats was coming up with an initiative for an appeal to Assad to accede, within 45 days, to the Chemical Weapons Convention, which he has never signed. That is one way of buying time and avoiding the possibility of a congressional failure, explained the journalist. The details speak volumes about the multiple scenarios that are starting to be considered. What is certain is that the Senate vote will be crucial. If it’s a yes, say some, Obama could even decide to bypass the House’s approval.

*Editor’s Note: These quotes, accurately translated, could not be verified.