With the Rise of Russia, the US May Need a 'Rebalance to Europe'
Published in Ta Kung Pao
(Hong Kong) on 14 March 2014
by Shi Junyu (link to original)
(Hong Kong) on 14 March 2014
by Shi Junyu (link to original)
Translated from
by Nathan Hsu.
Edited by Laurence Bouvard.
Ever since Obama's strategic pivot eastward and the implementation of the "rebalance to Asia" policy, the U.S. has been embroiled in a continual internal debate regarding the wisdom of that adjustment. The crisis in Ukraine has brought the issue to the forefront once more, with a senior official in the Department of Defense letting slip that the U.S. is in the process of reviewing the rebalance in a statement that has elicited strong reactions from around the globe. Despite the fact that the White House and State Department each strove to clarify matters afterward, an escalation in Ukraine would reignite the debate surrounding the U.S. strategic center of gravity, leading some experts to believe that the U.S. should indeed refocus its attention on Europe as the fulcrum of its foreign policy.
On March 16, the Republic of Crimea will hold a referendum on seceding from Ukraine to become a part of Russia. Despite the fact that neither the G-7 nor Kiev will recognize the results of the vote, the wishes of an entire people living under this de facto "semi-autonomous" state cannot simply be ignored. With Russia backing Crimea and Kiev being left powerless to exert any influence over the region, Crimea's secession is a foregone conclusion. So how will the West respond? Putting sanctions in place on Russia will see little real effect and may even invite some form of reprisal; what, then, about a military intervention? The U.S. and Europe are clearly unprepared. Even if they possess the capability, they are not willing to risk direct confrontation with Russia. If they do not act, Ukraine will be split in two and the West will lose its ability to influence the course of events in Europe, as well as the upper hand within its rivalry with Russia.
Although the situation has been developing for only a few years, there have been marked changes to Europe's strength in this regard. Washington's assessment that Europe is stable and does not present any security threat to the U.S. is outdated, and as events in Ukraine prove, the U.S. is now completely impotent in the region.
That Russia is on the rise is an indisputable fact and a reality that the U.S. must face. For a period of time after the end of the Cold War, Russia's power as a nation suffered a series of setbacks and was unable to constitute a viable threat to the U.S. Suddenly left without an adversary, the U.S. was seated firmly on its throne as the sole superpower, pacifying the Balkans, reigning supreme over the world and growing accustomed to its role as the "world police." Moving into the 21st century, the 9/11 attacks shifted the core foreign policy mission of the U.S. to combating terrorism as it opened two fronts in succession in Afghanistan and Iraq, affording Russia a golden opportunity to resurrect itself as a great power. After Obama took office, he moved the strategic focus to Asia with China being viewed as the primary adversary of the U.S., hoping to complete the "return to Asia" initiative through a "rebalancing" of power.
The Ukrainian crisis will force the White House to seriously rethink its policy position. As the facts have shown, the U.S. leaving European affairs to be managed by its allies in the region has been a grave mistake. Europe is not able to deal with the rise of Russia, much less play peacekeeper in disturbances outside of Europe. Since the U.S. focused its gaze eastward, there have been flare-ups in North Africa and the Middle East, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has grown more acute and the Iranian nuclear issue has come undone, all while a series of crises has left the U.S. with its hands full. For the moment, therefore, it has no choice but to face up to the danger of losing Ukraine.
Indeed, Russia is now worlds removed from its former self. Of particular note is the 2008 "Five-Day War" with Georgia, during which Russia neatly excised the tumor in the Caucasus that had bothered it for so many years, flexed its muscles and reclaimed its seat among the world powers. Russia has done the same in Ukraine, taking advantage of the regime change to bring Crimea under its own control through a few simple strokes and without firing a single shot.
A staggering Europe has appealed for the U.S. to return, requiring Washington's aid to "rebalance" the situation. The problem, however, is that the U.S. is now but a shadow of its former self and can no longer rely on an absolute military advantage to break through the proverbial enemy lines. The failure of the "return to Asia" strategy is a lesson that will be carved deeply in people's minds. Europe cannot be "rebalanced" using a Cold War mentality; far better to accept where the prevailing winds are blowing with a little less resistance, and a little more cooperation.
On March 16, the Republic of Crimea will hold a referendum on seceding from Ukraine to become a part of Russia. Despite the fact that neither the G-7 nor Kiev will recognize the results of the vote, the wishes of an entire people living under this de facto "semi-autonomous" state cannot simply be ignored. With Russia backing Crimea and Kiev being left powerless to exert any influence over the region, Crimea's secession is a foregone conclusion. So how will the West respond? Putting sanctions in place on Russia will see little real effect and may even invite some form of reprisal; what, then, about a military intervention? The U.S. and Europe are clearly unprepared. Even if they possess the capability, they are not willing to risk direct confrontation with Russia. If they do not act, Ukraine will be split in two and the West will lose its ability to influence the course of events in Europe, as well as the upper hand within its rivalry with Russia.
Although the situation has been developing for only a few years, there have been marked changes to Europe's strength in this regard. Washington's assessment that Europe is stable and does not present any security threat to the U.S. is outdated, and as events in Ukraine prove, the U.S. is now completely impotent in the region.
That Russia is on the rise is an indisputable fact and a reality that the U.S. must face. For a period of time after the end of the Cold War, Russia's power as a nation suffered a series of setbacks and was unable to constitute a viable threat to the U.S. Suddenly left without an adversary, the U.S. was seated firmly on its throne as the sole superpower, pacifying the Balkans, reigning supreme over the world and growing accustomed to its role as the "world police." Moving into the 21st century, the 9/11 attacks shifted the core foreign policy mission of the U.S. to combating terrorism as it opened two fronts in succession in Afghanistan and Iraq, affording Russia a golden opportunity to resurrect itself as a great power. After Obama took office, he moved the strategic focus to Asia with China being viewed as the primary adversary of the U.S., hoping to complete the "return to Asia" initiative through a "rebalancing" of power.
The Ukrainian crisis will force the White House to seriously rethink its policy position. As the facts have shown, the U.S. leaving European affairs to be managed by its allies in the region has been a grave mistake. Europe is not able to deal with the rise of Russia, much less play peacekeeper in disturbances outside of Europe. Since the U.S. focused its gaze eastward, there have been flare-ups in North Africa and the Middle East, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has grown more acute and the Iranian nuclear issue has come undone, all while a series of crises has left the U.S. with its hands full. For the moment, therefore, it has no choice but to face up to the danger of losing Ukraine.
Indeed, Russia is now worlds removed from its former self. Of particular note is the 2008 "Five-Day War" with Georgia, during which Russia neatly excised the tumor in the Caucasus that had bothered it for so many years, flexed its muscles and reclaimed its seat among the world powers. Russia has done the same in Ukraine, taking advantage of the regime change to bring Crimea under its own control through a few simple strokes and without firing a single shot.
A staggering Europe has appealed for the U.S. to return, requiring Washington's aid to "rebalance" the situation. The problem, however, is that the U.S. is now but a shadow of its former self and can no longer rely on an absolute military advantage to break through the proverbial enemy lines. The failure of the "return to Asia" strategy is a lesson that will be carved deeply in people's minds. Europe cannot be "rebalanced" using a Cold War mentality; far better to accept where the prevailing winds are blowing with a little less resistance, and a little more cooperation.