The Drought in California Threatens the World Supply of Almonds

The drought in California threatens the world production of almonds.

Eighty-two percent of almond production is concentrated in California.

The crops need large quantities of water for growth.

Crops across California are suffering from the effects of the megadrought, but it’s the almond trees that are suffering in particular. These crops, which are highly profitable when factors are conducive to their development, are feeling the effects of a prolonged drought that threatens the biggest crop producer in the world.

Two decades ago, it was decided in the agricultural belt of California to replace annual crops, such as lettuce and tomato plants, with nuts. The fields were filled with walnut, pistachio and almond trees to satisfy the growing American appetite for nuts.

As farmers know very well, these crops are highly profitable. However, they demand lots of water and long-term investment, since it takes them five years to start bearing fruits.

“These orchards are more profitable, which is why the farmers do it,” says Jay Lund, the director of the Center for Wastershed Sciences at UC Davis. However, he warns that “a drought can be very tough on them.”

Farmers are doing everything in their power to save the crops, such as digging wells and trying to find alternative water sources. Yet, given the persistent drought and the high price of water, some are coming to the conclusion that they will be forced to sacrifice many of their trees. This decision is expensive since the production of nuts in California brings in $7 billion in sales per year. Almonds alone generate $4.35 billion.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the state of California produces 82 percent of the world’s supply of almonds, has over 800,000 acres of almonds, and produced more than 1 million kilograms (approximately 2.2 million pounds) in 2013. The Mediterranean climate of California favors this crop, which has expanded considerably in the last years. Another reason for the expansion of this crop is the growing popularity of the Mediterranean diet, of which nuts are a key part. According to the data of U.S. Department of Agriculture, the consumption of nuts has increased by 36 percent since 2008 in the United States.

Almonds and grapes are the crops that make the most money in the United States, but as David Baker, director of Blue Diamond Growers, knows well, almond production will be affected because “when you cut back on water, it stresses the tree, and when an almond tree is under stress, it produces fewer nuts.” He continued, “The problem is, they will not recover for 3 or 4 years even if the drought breaks.”

Baker says that “replacing almonds with another crop isn’t an option because it costs more than $12,000 to seed a hectare of almond trees, and a farmer has to care for them for over five years before they start to produce.”*

The almond crisis has only just begun, and concern is spreading among the farmers. If the drought persists, the disaster will be unavoidable.

*Editor’s note: The original quotation, accurately translated, could not be verified.