Faced with China, the Philippines Shelters under the American Shield

On tour in Asia, Barack Obama has signed a military agreement with the archipelago, exposed to the appetites of the Chinese navy.

After having visited Japan, South Korea and Malaysia, on Monday Barack Obama arrived in the Philippines, the final leg of his Asian tour. The American president was greeted at Manila airport by his Filipino counterpart, Benigno Aquino. On this occasion, Washington and Manila announced the signature of an important agreement enabling a reinforcement of the American military presence in the Philippines.

What Is the Interest for Washington and Manila in Reinforcing the American Military Presence?

The Philippines feels threatened by China. In 2012, the Chinese navy seized the Scarborough Reef, an island located 160 km from the Philippines and 800 km from the coast of China, which until then belonged to Manila but is claimed by Beijing under the name of Huangyan.

Beijing wants to get its hands on several other islands and reefs, rich in gas and hydrocarbons, and Chinese ships are moving endlessly within their vicinity. In February 2014, Filipino President Benigno Aquino compared the incursions of the Chinese navy to the annexation of the Czechoslovakian territory by Hitler in 1938. Manila started an arbitration procedure with the U.N., based on the 1982 U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Despite being a signatory, Beijing refuses to submit to this procedure.

For its part, the United States has been reinforcing its diplomatic and military presence in East Asia since 2011 — a strategy qualified by Barack Obama as a “pivot to Asia.” Around 1,000 GIs are now posted in Darwin, Australia, within the framework of this strategy. Officially this American military “rebalancing” toward Asia does not target China. Unofficially, it is all about moderating a Chinese navy perceived by almost all of its neighbors as being aggressive.

What Is the Content of This Agreement?

This Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement is presented as an amendment to the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty between the U.S. and the Philippines. It will authorize American troops, aircraft and military ships to be stationed temporarily in the Philippines, where the last U.S. bases closed in 1992. The volume of these rotations has not been specified, which suggests that it may be increased if need be. “Greater cooperation between American and Filipino forces would enhance our ability to […] respond even faster to a range of challenges,” justified Barack Obama. The agreement also authorizes the U.S. army to stock equipment [to ensure a] quicker mobilization of American forces in the region. However, according to Obama, it is not a question of “trying to reclaim old bases or build new bases.”

What Is the Aim of the Agreement?

To deter China from resorting to force in order to seize naval territories it believes it owns. As Benigno Aquino declared: “Both President Obama and I shared the conviction that territorial and maritime disputes in the Asia Pacific region should be settled peacefully based on international law.”

Can China See It as a Provocation?

Beijing has, until now, reacted relatively calmly. But China perceives the American “pivot” strategy as an attempt to contain its regional expansion. Now feeling more protected by the American military umbrella, “Manila could become more daring, careless even, in its relationship with China, and make regional tensions increase,”* warned a Xinhua commentator on Monday. Rommel Banlaoi, a Filipino analyst on security matters, believes that relations between Manila and Beijing can only “deteriorate further.” “We are strengthening our relationship with the U.S.,” he laments, “at the expense of our relationship with China.”

*Editor’s note: The original quotation, accurately translated, could not be verified.