US: Permanently Employed Superpower

The dependence of the United States on imported energy only increased over time. Selling oil and gas to an America that was unable to provide for itself appeared to be a safe and profitable business, so Russia thought to sell gas from new sites in the Arctic to the Americans too.

But nothing came of it — not because of Ukraine, but because of new methods of extracting oil and gas, “fracking,” which had already changed the playing field of energy politics.

The technique was first developed 60 years ago but came into general use in the 2000s in the United States, where conditions turned out to be best for trying it out. The economic advantages are obvious, as are the security politics.

Skeptics claim that it’s only a temporary prolonging of what is in many ways a harmful fossil fuel economy. Others speak of a change in technology that will maintain the U.S. role as the leading superpower in the foreseeable future.

It is said that he who finds himself at the top worries most about his future. The U.S. interestingly combines the conviction that it is unique and has a special mission in the world with the constant anxiety that shortcomings at home and bad foreign policies can jeopardize the future. One reason for worry has long been the dependence on energy imports from countries with untrustworthy social orders. The U.S. became the biggest net importer of oil in 1948.

Together with the military, access to foreign energy sources has been seen as vital to national security, from President Eisenhower in the 1950s to Bush in the 2000s. In 1973, a group of Arab countries stopped their oil exports to the U.S. as punishment for its support of Israel in the October War. President Nixon then launched a plan for self-sufficiency that would be achieved by 1980, but the import portion of U.S. oil and gas consumption only increased: By 2005, it reached 60 percent.

Then, something happened. By 2015, imports are estimated to sink below 25 percent. The International Energy Agency, started up in connection with the oil price crisis of 1973 to 1974 by a group of equal-minded import and export countries, predicts that the U.S. will become self-sufficient by the year 2030. For almost 40 years, U.S. oil production decreased, but last year, the U.S. produced 50 percent more oil than five years earlier; the U.S. has surpassed Russia and will soon surpass the current leader, Saudi Arabia.

Since the 1970s, the discussion has revolved around the problematic pair of “energy security and shortages.” Now, it has instead become “energy security and surplus,” and the world is being forced to re-evaluate. It is apparent that the U.S. has been strengthened in a way that few believed possible 10 years ago.

The new situation is not free of worries, but it is welcome by everyone who prefers an America that is confident in its future, and who thinks it is a good thing — in due time and if necessary — to be able to exchange Russian with American gas.