Obama is Forced to Act in Iraq

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 20 June 2014
by Wu Zurong (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Yuzhi Yang. Edited by Kyrstie Lane.
Recently, anti-government militants led by the Sunni extremist group Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant have taken many important areas in northern Iraq and are closing in on Baghdad. Baghdad is now extremely threatened, affecting the al-Maliki-led government, which the U.S. launched the Iraq war to cultivate. The situation has attracted attention from American President Obama and others. The U.S. has paid a huge price for the Iraq war in its 36,000-plus military casualties and almost a trillion dollars in economic loss, so it has trouble accepting the sudden change in the Iraq situation, and the fact that Islamic extremists may once again be in power in Iraq. The crisis in Iraq has hit a nerve. Has the U.S. lost its 13-year war on terrorism? Did Obama make major mistakes in his six years of foreign diplomacy? Voices of doubt have been raised and not quieted.

Americans are most worried about another Sept. 11 at home with the change in Iraq. On the surface, the U.S. has made major progress in its war on terror: The al-Qaida leader bin Laden was killed, and while U.S. citizens as well as important domestic and foreign structures have faced some terrorist threats and even attacks, the attacks’ frequency, scope, loss of life and economic losses were not comparable to the Sept. 11 attacks. Obama has also often prided himself on his anti-terrorism accomplishments. Yet, the anti-government militants’ large-scale military movements in occupying northern Iraq have made the U.S. realize the many problems in the war on terror, and generated a reflection and critique of Obama’s foreign policy.

The U.S. is fighting a war without a just cause. The military invasion of Iraq is the root of the problem for the Iraq mess. America used incorrect intelligence to attack terrorists, and under a banner of looking for weapons of mass destruction, a legal government was overthrown and ethnic and religious conflicts were created, leading to chaos and poverty. Soon after Obama came into power, he announced the troop withdrawal from Iraq due to domestic political concerns and international strategic adjustment. While terrorist attacks still constantly happened in Iraq, before political and economic order was restored and people’s lives could be improved, the U.S. military left the country, leaving behind a mess. The promise of transforming Iraq into a democratic and prosperous country is gone without a trace. U.S. anti-terrorism efforts were all about military attacks instead of getting rid of the fertile soil which is breeding terrorism, helping Iraq grow its economy, improving its citizens’ lives, and resolving ethnic and religious conflicts. It is hard to have victory with the American way of anti-terrorism.

The U.S. wants a piece of the pie that is Asia’s rapid economic development; meanwhile, in the long-term, curbing China’s development into a powerful competitor and realizing a strategic rebalancing of power in Asia was another important reason for the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. Now, as the rebalancing is in effect, Japan’s Shinzō Abe has used the opportunity to expand his pro-military expansion and right-wing agenda; meanwhile, the Philippines and other countries have created non-stop conflicts to disrupt regional harmony and stability. In the Middle East, the U.S. is having more and more problems: It is having trouble solving one crisis before another pops up. The strategic rebalancing of power in Asia is facing another serious test.

How Iraq’s domestic crisis is handled will not only affect the mid-term U.S. elections, but also the political strength of the last two years of Obama’s presidency, and will be an important indicator in the analysis of Obama’s historical standing. Losing Iraq will signify the complete failure of Obama’s anti-terrorism strategies and tactics. Confronted with war chaos in Iraq, Obama has no choice but to face the challenge. The aircraft carriers have arrived in the Gulf, and the aerial attacks on the anti-government militants are also poised to launch. Partnering with Iran to take military action in Iraq is no longer an unimaginable choice.

The author is the Executive Director of the American Studies Center at the China Foundation for International Studies.


由逊尼派极端组织“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”领导的伊拉克反政府武装近日攻占伊拉克北部数个重镇,向首都巴格达逼近,巴格达面临极大威胁。巴格达的安全事关美国通过发动伊拉克战争扶植起来的马利基政府的安危,引起美国总统奥巴马和各界人士的高度关注。美国在伊拉克战争中付出了36000多军人伤亡和近万亿美元直接经济损失的高昂代价,难以接受伊拉克风云突变、伊斯兰极端组织势力可能再次在伊拉克坐大的事实。伊拉克危局再次触动美国的神经。美国13年反恐战争是否已经彻底失败?奥巴马6年的外交战略是否存在重大失误,质疑声此起彼伏,接连不断。

看到伊拉克形势的变化,美国人最担心是,“9·11恐怖袭击”会不会在美国再次发生。 表面上看,美国的反恐战争已经取得较大进展,“基地”组 织头目本拉登已被击毙,美国公民和国内外重要设施虽不时受到恐怖威胁,甚至袭击,但遭袭频率、规模、人员伤亡和财产损失都不能和“9·11恐怖袭击”同日 而语。奥巴马也时常以其反恐成就而居功自豪。然而,伊拉克反政府武装攻占北部地区的大规模军事行动,让美国看到了反恐战争中存在的诸多问题,并引发对奥巴 马外交战略的反思和检讨。

美国师出无名,军事入侵伊拉克是当今伊拉克乱局的祸根。美国根据错误情报,在打击恐怖分子,搜查大规模杀伤性武器的大旗下,推翻合法政府,制造 民族和教派矛盾,造成时局动荡,民不聊生的悲惨局面。奥巴马上台后不久,从国内政治和全球战略调整需要出发,宣布从伊拉克撤军。在伊拉克国内恐怖袭击事件 仍然经常发生,政治经济秩序尚未完全恢复正常,民众生活毫无改善的情况下,美军扔下烂摊子,一走了之。当初把伊拉克改造成民主繁荣国家的承诺此时已不见踪影。美国反恐,只知军事打击,不知根除产生恐怖主义的土壤,帮助伊拉克发展经济,改善民生,化解民族和宗教矛盾。美国的军事行动播下了仇恨的种子,给宗教极端意识的滋长准备了条件。美国式反恐路径难有“胜利”可言。


美国为了从亚洲经济快速发展中分到一杯羹,同时,从长远着眼,遏制中国发展成为其实力强大的主要对手,实施亚洲再平衡战略,也是促使美国仓促撤离伊拉克的一个重要原因。现在,由于这一战略的实施,在亚洲,日本安倍内阁借机竭力推进强军扩军极右政治路线,伙同菲律宾等国频繁制造事端,破坏地区和平稳定。在中东,美国麻烦不断增多,好似陷入捉襟见肘,顾此失彼的困境。亚洲再平衡战略面临再一次平衡的严峻考验。


所以,平息伊拉克内乱成效如何,不仅会对美国国会中期选举产生直接影响,关系到奥巴马任期最后两年施政的政治实力,而且也会成为奥巴马历史地位评价的重要指标。失去伊拉克将标志着奥巴马反恐战争战略策略的彻底失败。面对伊拉克战乱,无论愿意不愿意,奥巴马只有顶着风险主动应对。现在,美国航母战斗群已经驶入海湾,空袭伊拉克反政府武装已箭在弦上。同伊朗合作在伊拉克采取军事行动也不再是难以想象的选项。
(作者是中国国际问题研究基金会美国研究中心执行主任)
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