The Last Ambition of Barack Obama

He is left with nothing, or almost nothing. After the hard defeat during the midterm elections, which saw the Senate itself toppled — and to a large extent toward a Republican majority — Barack Obama has all the free time to think up an exit strategy. On the domestic front, he is blocked, caricaturized in the position of a “lame duck,” a catchphrase that without pity designates an elected official who is happy to occupy his or her seat while waiting for the predetermined day that his or her successor will arrive.

He was forced to put himself in a defensive position, in itself a battle, in order to retain the few reforms that he managed to impose; at most, he can dream of consolidating what he’s accomplished, so he doesn’t see his footprints completely erased. He won’t be going back on “Obamacare,” the emblematic measure concerning medical coverage for low-income people.

But, to save his track record, he will have to compromise with the two houses of Congress, dominated by Republicans, which he hasn’t been able to do so far — even with Democratic representatives. Above all, he has lost the support of public opinion, which is hopelessly critical of his position, and looks like a scarecrow to voters inside his own Democratic Party, all while the perspectives for growth are favorable, the public deficit has substantially decreased — it is currently less than 3 percent of the gross domestic product — unemployment has dropped, and the American economy has given tangible signs of improvement — which all of Europe is counting on.

An Elite Washington Too Cut Off from the People

No matter, there exists a sort of fatality in politics: Obama remains the man elected after the storm of subprime lending and the global financial crisis, which the United States generously shared with the rest of the world. In this respect, Americans have reproached him for their being generally poorer today than they were before he was first elected in 2008 — fatality … An essential factor, this sensation of irreducible fracture, associated with the rejection of an elite Washington, too cut off from the people, allowed Republicans, desperately populist and lacking any kind of plan, to transform the Senate elections into a referendum against a Barack Obama who must absolutely be vanquished instead of a program.

He is left with nothing, except the field of foreign policy, where he has also deceived, where the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize could imagine a sort of last stand. But in what part of the world? The example of Bill Clinton, who got involved in the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks after a major electoral defeat, comes immediately to mind: except America finds itself in a reverse position today; it is war that concerns it much more than peace — which is downright not to be found anywhere.

American opinion, to tell the truth, has returned spectacularly to the subject of Iraq, having gone from the approval of the return of American troops, initiated by George W. Bush and put into action by his successor, to the indignation raised by the passivity of the United States against the breakthrough of the jihadi of Daech. Nevertheless, it is difficult to imagine further involvement of the United States in the Middle East meeting much approval: The tendency toward isolationism appears very strong among Republicans, especially within the tea party movement.

We can add this to the direct confrontation with Russia over Ukraine that on the other hand, an overwhelming majority of Republicans strongly support, which makes a major international initiative risky, even as the line Barack Obama was following became illegible over the course of events. So, we can expect a very modest goal for the next two years: establish clarity in his strategy, which would already be progress or a last ambition. And not a lesser one …