Political Sanctions Have Their Limits

The United States embargo against Cuba is a relic of the Cold War. Barack Obama made the first internationally recognized attempt to revoke, at least partially, this law originally passed in 1962. Raul Castro, the Cuban president, also offered a reconciliatory gesture, freeing an American citizen who, for five years, had been held prisoner in Cuba. Diplomatic relations between the American giant and the Caribbean island are to be re-established. Granted, this may only be small progress, as the U.S. Congress still needs to formally announce a decision on the raising of the embargo, and Havana has yet to declare new measures concerning political liberalization.

But the gesture has several historical consequences. First and foremost, it allows the U.S. to make a full comeback in terms of Latin American politics. Venezuela, Cuba’s only remaining support of any considerable weight after the fall of the Soviet Union, will find it increasingly difficult to speak of anti-Americanism. Even President Nicolas Maduro himself, Chavez’s successor, applauded Obama on a “historical rectification.” Bit by bit, America is moving ever closer to matching the position of the European Union, which has already taken the initiative to open negotiations with Cuba.

What’s more, cooperation between the U.S. and Cuba, even if currently minimal, could have a considerable snowball effect. And it’s difficult to imagine that this wouldn’t be followed by other political liberalization methods, as was the case in Russia, when Gorbachev became head of the Communist Party in 1985. However, there is another important consequence to note, namely the revelation of the limits of any embargo and its resulting sanctions upon a particular country. According to Obama, the commercial blockade against Cuba wasn’t able to fulfill its objectives. This is a lesson to learn from. Without launching a real political process, it seems sanctions alone are unable to alter the situation. Vladimir Putin knows as much, since, if Russia does have to change course, this will most probably be due to the fall in oil prices rather than any imposed sanctions.