Direction

Cuba was under the umbrella of the Soviet Union for decades. When the Berlin Wall fell, aid and subsidies to the Cuban economy stopped, allowing its weakness to show, and it collapsed. Cubans went through what was called a “special period,” during which top government officials rode bicycles for lack of fuel, and citizens were dying of hunger. The Cubans made adjustments to their precarious economy. After Chávez came to power, they strengthened their ties with Venezuela, which has subsidized them for more than a decade. Now, at a time when Venezuela is “passing oil” politically, economically and socially, the Castro government, which based its revolution on hatred of the Yankee imperialists, is making a U-turn and is no longer baring its teeth at the USA to the surprise of its principal ally, which is left diplomatically disoriented.

The Cubans are trying to do what China did: maintain political power and modernize the economic system. But Cuba isn’t China, and that process of modernization requires lifting the U.S. embargo on the island. The U.S. Congress, where the Republicans are in the majority, has to approve this; most of them oppose loosening sanctions on a Communist regime that violates human rights.

Those Republican majorities are a big obstacle for Obama, who will have to consider how to resolve this stumbling block. Republicans are opposed on principle because they think that the blockade is the best tool. They think that Raúl Castro will use the U.S. to improve the economy, but without making changes that would permit Cubans to live in a democratic system.

When Obama acted, he was thinking about his legacy, not about the short-term workings of the American political system. And that’s why he probably thinks that although the American Congress won’t approve lifting the embargo during his term in office, the announcement in itself will result in economic and political behavior that will bring irreversible change to the island. Already, the joint declaration cuts down the rhetoric of the Latin American radical left, and weakens Venezuela and the Union of South American Nations.

Since economic realities partly define political realities, it is probable that democracy will come to Cuba someday, but it isn’t a sure thing in the short term; the level of control over the population by the Communist regime is total. Beyond opening up economically, democracy requires citizens with a culture of respect for human rights and individual liberties. That culture doesn’t exist in Cuba, where the party of the revolution stands over and above the people.

In the short term, these announcements are favorable to Colombia because they align the interests that facilitate the signing of the peace agreements.