Is America Moving from the Air to the Ground To Counter Russia, Iran in Iraq, and Syria?

Many players are rallying in the arena that is Syria and its skies. All of them are playing a special game that involves trying to score points with one goal in mind, and that is winning the Syrian Civil War. However, the pace of the game and the variety of players is putting them on a collision course with one another.

America is playing in the skies over Syria and Iraq on its own behalf, as well as for its regional and NATO allies. Under America’s sponsorship, some of those allies are even active on the ground in Syria, both logistically and financially.

Iran is playing on the ground in Syria logistically, financially, and most notably militarily. Perhaps it is thinking of soaring high in Syrian airspace to launch targeted airstrikes as well.

Turkey is involved on the ground in Syria through the opening of their shared border for Islamic State fighters, and also for the import and export of oil from Syria and Iraq. Furthermore, Turkey has dared to play against Russia in the skies over Syria. It rudely violated the sanctity of Russia’s assets and has made itself a target for Russian sanctions.

The French targeted the Islamic State group, the aftermath of which then played itself out in the heart of the French capital. As a result France sent its fighter planes into Syria’s skies, where the terrorist group of players took note of the French threat to play an extra bloody round in response to the ordeal that was Paris.

Everyone is playing in Syria, on the ground or in its skies. The American team has sent advisers and trainers to the well known Kurdish People’s Protection Units team in order to elevate their performance against the Islamic State group. Perhaps, even against the Turkish team as well. During a recent joint hearing in front of the United States House Committee on Armed Services, the captain of the U.S. squad, Defense Secretary Ashton Carter, clarified that Special Forces commandos are being deployed to Syria. Their mission will be to raid specific meeting locations of the Islamic State group, in order to capture the group’s leadership in Iraq and Syria. These forces will be capable of engaging in raids to free hostages and gather intelligence, as well as capture the organization’s senior leadership. Carter also confirmed that he is prepared to expand the role of U.S. Special Forces in Syria.

Carter, however, did not publicly announce what is being done in secret. He did not announce U.S. plans for the agricultural processing airport in Tel Hajr, outside the city of Hasaka, that is actually a dedicated runway for warplanes. He did not reveal the location housing the Kurdish Protection Units’ weapons stockpile. What is the purpose of this? The base enables U.S. Special Operations to deploy forces and deliver support to its ally, which has remained in control of a large stretch of border between Iraq and Syria. The paradox here is that the Kurdish Protection Units are getting logistical support not only from the United States, but from Russia as well. In the town of Qamashli, close to the Syrian border with Iraq, a Russia jet recently crashed. Following this event the Kurds were quick to offer military assistance. What exactly is going on in Northern Syria and what is the intended goal? It has become clear that Turkey was responsible for downing the Russian plane in Syria two weeks ago. This incident generated political, economic and militaristic reactions from Moscow that are undermining President Erdogan of Turkey’s dream of establishing a safe zone in Northern Syria. This is important to Turkey for two reasons. First, because it wanted to prevent the Kurds from controlling the area extending from the east of Jarabulus to Afrin in the west. Second, it hoped to prevent other forces from gaining control over a large area in Syria, enabling Turkey to strengthen the negotiating position for itself and its allies in the event that talks about a political settlement with the Syrian government occur.

Syria, Iran and Russia are accepting military support and allowing participants from any country to fight, so long as they oppose the Islamic State group and other Islamist groups with a view for removing them from all the areas they control. The Kurds, however, strive for a unified Syria without geographical or political prejudice. In negotiations with the United Nations, the government in Damascus agreed to granting them a type of self-governmental autonomy; that would be in the northeastern parts of the country and within the framework of a united Syrian system. Despite this, the Syrian government rejected any provisions that would possibly lead to a Kurdish split from the country.

Seen from this perspective, it is possible to predict the following outcome of the conflict for Syria, and the state that it is presently headed toward becoming: Eviction of the Islamic State group and its Islamist allies from all of the areas it controls in Syria, unconditionally.

The inability of the Kurds in northeastern Syria to reach their brothers in the cities of Afrin and Azaz in the west will encourage the Turkish government to make the most of areas adjacent to the Turkish-Syrian border and keep them free from Kurdish control. Taking into account the Turkmens in the Idlib province and other areas in northwest Syria, Turkey will want to grant them a form of administrative autonomy, rather than political independence.

Even if there is the possibility for an agreement, sooner or later, with regards to either of the aforementioned scenarios, the conflict in Syria and Iraq will continue to rage because of two persistent challenges. First, the Israeli occupation of the Golan Heights. Second, the Islamic State group’s control in Mosul, Salah Addien and Anbar provinces that stretch the entire length of Iraq’s border with Syria. Damascus thus realizes the extent of the cooperation between al-Qaida in Syria and the Golan Heights, and Zionists who want to establish a pocket of terrorist organizations. [The presence of these organizations] would pressure Damascus into abandoning its demand for the occupied Golan Heights to be liberated, thereby encouraging Hezbollah forces to withdraw from Syria and stopping Iran’s logistical support for the group inside Syria.

As for Iraq, its government and its people will continue to insist that the Islamic State group be removed from all areas that it presently controls. Furthermore, the Kurds will get support from Iran and will not hesitate to confront any U.S. force, nor any Turkish one for that matter, in order to increase their presence, whatever the cost. This may be what the U.S. and Israel want, so that they can drive a wedge through western Iraq that will separate the Levant from Iran. The conflict in Syria is still raging, but it will grow more violent if the United States decides it must move from the air to the ground in order to achieve its goals and Israel’s plans for Syria and Iraq.